Contents
3 Sector anatomy – presentation of the sector
4 Sector anatomy – performance and valuation
5 Investment summary
7 Valuation
7 Flag carriers: P/BV cycle
9 Low-cost carriers: P/E-driven
10 The flying circus: how it turns
10 Capacity efficiency: load factor, daily utilisation, aircraft in use
10 Capacity efficiency neglected in favour of fleet growth
11 Capacity efficiency helps margins but fleet growth hinders
11 Airline margins closely correlated with capacity efficiency
12 Traffic growth model linked to world GDP growth
13 Fleet growth forecasts driven by deliveries
14 Global airline margin forecasts: further to fall
15 Fewer aircraft needed, recovery 2011e, six years to next peak
17 Balance sheet strength
18 Summary forecasts
Company profiles
26 Air France-KLM
28 British Airways
30 Lufthansa
32 Easyjet
34 Iberia
36 Ryanair