摩根斯坦利：美国海运行业研究报告2009年8月

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Table of Contents
Investment Perspective Page 2
Rates Assumptions & Forecasts Page 3
Change in Tanker & Dry Bulk Forward Sentiment Page 4
Morgan Stanley Valuation Summary & Estimates Page 7
Consensus EPS Revisions Page 9
TCE Expectations & Charter Exposure Matrix Page 10
Asset Markets, Trading & Valuation Summary Page 14
Relative Valuation and Comparative Metrics Page 16
Net Asset Value Calculations: Tankers and Dry Bulkers Page 18
Shipping Market Indicators Page 20
Tanker Supply / Demand Model Page 24
Dry Bulk Macro Indicators Page 25
Dry Bulk Supply / Demand Model Page 27
Equity Market Overview: Tankers and Dry Bulkers Page 30
Stocks Performance Review Page 31
Historical Price / NAV per Share: Tankers & Dry Bulkers Page 32
Valuation Methodologies and Investment Risks Page 47
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As
a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors
should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a
single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important
disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,
located at the end of this report.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated Ole Slorer
Ole.Slorer@morganstanley.com
+1 (1)212 761 6198
Eric S Pachman
Eric.Pachman@morganstanley.com
+1 (1)212 761 4314
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
N O R T H A M E R I C A
Industry View
Attractive

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