摩根斯坦利：台湾内存行业研究报告2009年9月

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Contents
Investment Case: Upgrade to In-Line on DRAM Recovery......................................................................................... 5
Rating Changes .................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Long-term Winners.............................................................................................................................................................. 5
Transitional Play, Attractive in the Near Term.......................................................................................................................... 6
Long-term Unattractive........................................................................................................................................................................6
Bull Case on Cyclical DRAM Recovery ...............................................................................................................................................7
Structural Bear Case on DRAM ..........................................................................................................................................................7
Taiwan Is Resilient ..............................................................................................................................................................................7
Survival Test Is 40 nm, Not 50 nm ......................................................................................................................................................8
Debate 1: Can Taiwan DRAM Makers Reduce Costs Fast Enough to Repay
Debt? ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Debate 2: Balance Sheet Recession – Will Debt Extension in 2009 Become
2010’s Headache? ........................................................................................................................................................ 12
Debate 3: When Will Taiwan DRAM Makers Turn Profitable? .................................................................................. 15
Debate 4: TMC Still Needed? Too Little, Too Late?.................................................................................................. 17
Proprietary Analysis: Taiwan Is the Levered Play in DRAM This Cycle.................................................................. 19
Rigorous Analysis of Business Model: Capex Hurts Market Cap? ......................................................................... 21
Short-Term Opportunity – DDR II Price Premium over DDR III by 1Q10 ................................................................. 23
Valuation Charts........................................................................................................................................................... 25
Company Updates:....................................................................................................................................................... 29
Nanya (NT$20.1, EW, PT NT$20)...................................................................................................................................................30
Powerchip (NT$2.76, UW, PT NT$2.5) ...........................................................................................................................................30
Inotera (NT$19.85, OW, PT NT$25)................................................................................................................................................31
Winbond (NT$6.30, OW, PT NT$8.00)............................................................................................................................................32
Powertech (NT$93.9, EW, PT NT$105.0) .......................................................................................................................................33
Transcend (NT$114, EW, PT NT$119) ...........................................................................................................................................34
Risk-Reward Snapshots:
Nanya (2408.TW, NT$20.1, EW, PT: NT$20.00).......................................................................................................... 37
Powerchip (5346.TWO, NT$2.76, UW, PT NT$2.50) ................................................................................................... 41
Inotera (3474.TW, NT$19.85, OW, PT NT$25.00) ....................................................................................................... 45
Winbond (2344.TW, NT$6.30, OW, PT: NT$8) ............................................................................................................ 49
Powertech (6239.TW, NT$93.9, EW, PT NT$105) ....................................................................................................... 53
Transcend Information (2451.TW, NT$114.0, EW, PT NT$119.0)............................................................................... 56

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