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雷达卡
Upgrade industry from Cautious to In-Line: We had
been Cautious on consumer electronics due to a marked
disparity between uncertainty in 2H demand conditions
and bullish 2H guidance spelling risk of cuts to F3/10
earnings targets. Brisk Chinese demand is helping
improve LCD panel supply/demand in 1H, and we now
believe massive forecast cuts are avoidable as all firms
work to improve costs.
Reiterate Sony as our top pick: Our Sony OW
recommendation emphasizes its inexpensive valuation
alongside its leading progress in improving costs.
Panasonic and Sharp are trading above BPS. We can
now justify a premium for Sharp given its degree of
expected ROE improvement in F3/11, but expect
Panasonic to lag in terms of F3/11 earnings
improvement even when factoring in the Sanyo TOB.
Downgrade Pioneer from EW to UW: (1) Earnings
improvement in the car electronics segment, which will
generate an even higher proportion of overall profits
ahead, is uncertain. (2) We believe the stock is trading
at too extensive of a premium to BPS after factoring for
dilution from the ¥40.0 bn in funding.
Expect LCD prices to peak in July-Sept: We look for
LCD panel supply/demand to loosen by Oct-Dec. TV
inventory growth in China is an emerging risk. Inventory
for Chinese TV brands in some cases is starting to
stream into the N. American market. Pricing pressure
could heat up for the TV makers over the Christmas
shopping season. Slowing in panel orders next Jan-Mar
would also fan risk of panel price declines.
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