BNP百富勤：泰国宏观经济研究报告2009年9月

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Contents
Moving forward .............................................................................................................. 3
Concerns have begun to be raised over whether the 36% YTD surge in the SET has already reflected
the good news, Siam Senses thinks not and remains bullish on Thailand but with a change of portfolio
mix. We believe the market was initially jump-started by falling deflation risk and later further boosted
by the expectation of the downturn ending. Now the end-of-recession expectation has been realised,
economic growth momentum looks set to continue.
Time to increase exposure to the real sector................................................................. 7
The earnings turnaround is across the board in both domestic-based and export-oriented companies.
As mentioned previously, the earnings upgrade cycle has yet to end and, despite that, our EPS growth
forecasts are at 17% for 2009 and 21% for 2010.
Deposit rate risk dilutes benefit to banks..................................................................... 11
Siam Senses now sees upside risk to deposit rates while still adhering to the view that hefty excess
liquidity of 15% to GDP will keep lending rates low. That said, the risk of falling interest rate spread will
only dilute the benefit from the economic turnaround to banks rather than overriding all the optimism.
Exposure to real sector raised, banks cut ................................................................... 17
For the reasons laid out earlier in this report, Siam Senses believes it’s now time to increase exposure
to the real sector in our portfolio. At the same time, our exposure in the banking sector is reduced.
Company financials ..................................................................................................... 25
Amata Corp – BUY; CP: THB6.70; TP: THB8.60 26
Airports of Thailand – BUY; CP: THB36.50; TP: THB45.00 28
Banpu – BUY; CP: THB402.00; TP: THB470.00 30
CP ALL – BUY; CP: THB17.10; TP: THB22.00 32
Central Pattana – BUY; CP: THB21.00; TP: THB24.70 34
Glow Energy – BUY; CP: THB31.00; TP: THB45.00 36
Indorama Polymers – BUY; CP: THB12.00; TP: THB14.50 38
Kasikornbank – BUY; CP: THB73.50; TP: THB90.00 40
PTT – BUY; CP: THB238.00; TP: THB294.00 42
Siam Cement – BUY; CP: THB191.50; TP: THB240.00 44

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关键词：宏观经济研究 研究报告 经济研究 宏观经济 BNP 宏观经济 研究报告 百富勤 BNP 泰国