发帖
雷达卡
Korean Economic Monthly
February 2009
Global economic recovery to be delayed: We believe it will take some time for the
global economy to get back on track—very different from the recent upbeat mood in
the domestic market, with its high expectations that economic stimulus packages in
the US and China would bring forth structural recovery soon. In our view, the current
recession is structural—any improvement in short-term economic cycles such as
inventory declines and rising pent-up demand as panic subsides are unsustainable.
Won to remain vulnerable to EM currency fluctuations: We believe that delaying
restructuring of US financial institutions will accelerate global deleveraging. The
Institute of International Finance forecasts that financial institutions in developed
markets (DMs) will initiate full-blown loan collection in emerging markets (EMs) this
year. Indeed, their aversion to lending to EMs was the main culprit behind the plunge
of the won against the dollar at end-2008 and the recent decline of the Russian ruble.
Thus, we expect the won to remain vulnerable to currency fluctuation in EMs.
Deflation risk to rise: Some are concerned that the Fed's aggressive monetary
expansion may soon trigger inflation. Given the US government's snowballing fiscal
deficits, inflating away debt by printing money seems inevitable. Inflation, however,
occurs when credit, not money supply, increases-i.e, increased bank lending bolsters
consumption and investment, prompting workers to demand higher wages. Amid the
current supply glut following the collapse of global demand, demand-pull inflationary
pressure is unlikely. Also unlikely is credit expansion given an obvious liquidity trap
due to deterioration of asset quality at financial institutions. Despite the Fed's
quantitative easing, deflationary risks such as those seen in Japan are of greater
concern than inflation, in our view.
296391.pdf
(1.5 MB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
