2010年2月欧洲三线国家宏观经济研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月欧洲三线国家宏观经济研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：

Sovereign risk concerns about Greece
are spreading through the Eurozone
􀀗 We look at whether it is justified and ask
which countries could be affected next
􀀗 Trade recommendations are based on a
re-setting of yields in a three-tier
Eurozone
Markets have yet to be reassured by the European
Commission’s conditional endorsement of the Greek
government’s fiscal consolidation plan. The contagion is now
spreading to the other weak links in the Eurozone. If the latest
plan fails to curb the Greek deficit, there are further
expenditure cuts that could be made and a number of other
measures which could raise revenue, such as a VAT increase
or the removal of preferential taxation for some Greek
companies. HSBC views the prospect of default or euro exit
as remote. However, the current state of the markets suggests
Greece may need conditional support from the key European
institutions and governments. Financial support is only likely
to be provided, however, in exchange for a more formalised
loss of Greece’s sovereignty over its public finances.
The current bout of contagion appears to be focusing on
Portugal and, to a lesser extent, Spain. Some of this is
justified, but the fundamentals are better than in Greece. This
paper identifies which countries could be most affected if the
contagion spreads further. Most vulnerable are those
countries that have run recurring budget deficits, have high
debt-to-GDP ratios, low domestic savings rates, where there
has been a big loss of competitiveness, where inflation will be
low or negative, and where governments are considered likely
to face public opposition to tough fiscal policy measures and
structural reforms. Greece, Portugal and Spain have the most
challenging fundamentals, but Italy and Belgium could also
start to raise some concerns. Among the top tier, even
France’s ongoing large deficit looks challenging. In contrast,
the fears about sovereign risk in Austria, which were largely
based on CEE concerns, look overdone.
Trade recommendations are based on the fundamentals,
taking into consideration relative CDS and cash market
valuations. These include: sell Belgium, buy Austria; sell
Spain, buy Italy; sell France, buy UK; sell Portugal, buy
Ireland; and buy Greece outright.

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关键词：宏观经济研究 研究报告 经济研究 宏观经济 Fundamentals 宏观经济 研究报告 国家 欧洲 三线