ADF检验结果::
Null Hypothesis: LEC2 has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 5 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.955664 0.0008
Test critical values: 1% level -4.571559
5% level -3.690814
10% level -3.286909
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 18
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LEC2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/15/09 Time: 10:41
Sample (adjusted): 1991 2008
Included observations: 18 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LEC2(-1) -0.608677 0.102201 -5.955664 0.0001
D(LEC2(-1)) 1.034670 0.140050 7.387883 0.0000
D(LEC2(-2)) 0.288148 0.140991 2.043733 0.0682
D(LEC2(-3)) 0.645888 0.108452 5.955530 0.0001
D(LEC2(-4)) -0.161844 0.111112 -1.456588 0.1759
D(LEC2(-5)) 0.274045 0.112057 2.445596 0.0345
C 4.460026 0.736124 6.058800 0.0001
@TREND(1985) 0.049707 0.008672 5.732024 0.0002
R-squared 0.916319 Mean dependent var 0.093153
Adjusted R-squared 0.857742 S.D. dependent var 0.043764
S.E. of regression 0.016507 Akaike info criterion -5.068997
Sum squared resid 0.002725 Schwarz criterion -4.673276
Log likelihood 53.62097 F-statistic 15.64298
Durbin-Watson stat 2.626132 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000121
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