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Contents
Nearing the top 3
The Singapore residential sector is peaking, leaving little upside for developer
stocks. Compressed rental yields, potential anti-speculative measures and a huge
supply pipeline exert downward pressure on residential transaction and prices.
Underweight the sector.
3
Party should be over soon 3
Residential – ripe for correction 4
We expect the residential sector to correct soon, as prices have surged 16-26% in
last four months. Declining yield, potential anti-speculative measures and
oversupply are dampeners to the sector. Our top Sell is CDL due to its high
exposure to the sector.
4
Residential prices are peaking, in our view 4
The boom that began with the Caspian project 4
Looks like real estate speculation 5
Government may come rapping 7
Supply overhang 8
Top Sell – City Developments 10
Offices remain in the doldrums 11
We expect the down cycle in the office sector to persist until 2012 owing to
overwhelming supply. Current transactions imply another 15% fall in prime office
rents. We expect Keppel Land and UOL to record revaluation losses on office
properties this year.
11
Declining rents and capital values 11
Keppel Land and UOL may record revaluation losses 13
Hotels and retail – recovery not yet in sight 15
We expect the hotel and retail sectors to remain subdued pending recovery in the
global economy, as tourism remains depressed. The full supply pipeline should
keep rents in check. UOL is most exposed to hotels; CapitaLand is the leading
retailer in Singapore.
15
Hotels – supply shock 15
Appendix 18
Company profiles 23
CapitaLand 24
City Developments 29
Keppel Land 34
UOL Group 39
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