发帖
雷达卡
Looking East
Asian upstream firms are growing quickly thanks to their exposure to
profitable projects. They also enjoy higher returns than their international
peers due to lower costs and taxes, a relatively friendly regulatory
environment and easier access to reserves. CNOOC, Inpex, Cairn India
and PTTEP offer good long-term prospects at reasonable prices. Their
solid growth prospects, exposure to oil prices and correlation to Asian
markets make them attractive for global investors.
Joining the club
􀂉 Asia represents a significant portion of accessible non-Opec reserves.
􀂉 The region’s upstream sector offers access to attractive pockets of oil deposits.
􀂉 Asian companies benefit from rising prices, low costs and friendly regulations.
􀂉 They have established a solid track record in recent years and are involved in
exciting projects that are inaccessible through other vehicles.
Success stories
􀂉 Each of our recommended stocks is engaged in a substantial and lucrative project.
􀂉 Bohai Bay in northeast China continues to be CNOOC’s home base and a source of
strong growth.
􀂉 Cairn’s Rajasthan project will account for 20% of India’s output in two to three
years.
􀂉 Thailand’s Arthit and other fields will help boost PTTEP’s production through 2012.
􀂉 The Ichthys project in Australia will be a game changer for Inpex of Japan.
Commodity tailwind
􀂉 A strong oil price is a key assumption behind our preference for upstream plays.
􀂉 We expect crude to trade within a US$75-85/bbl range in 2010-12.
􀂉 We expect Opec to actively control supply in the coming years.
􀂉 Non-Opec supply will be weak due to project cancellations, delays and mature fields.
􀂉 A pickup in global demand is a wild card for oil markets in the coming quarters.
Well ranked
􀂉 Asian oil firms have produced higher returns than global peers in recent years.
􀂉 They have achieved this with less financial risk as leverage is very low.
􀂉 On the downside, Asian companies’ reserves growth has been slower.
􀂉 They are generally involved in lower-cost projects than their US counterparts.
􀂉 We recommend investors take positions in CNOOC, PTTEP, Cairn India and Inpex.
京公网安备 11010802022788号
