里昂证券：韩国消费行业研究报告2009年10月

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Chasing China
Our recent 10-day China trip reveals a large opportunity for Korea’s
consumer firms, especially cosmetics brands, as the market looks for new,
high-quality products. We upgrade LG Household & Healthcare from
Outperform to BUY and Amorepacific from Underperform to Outperform. We
project a 30-40% profit Cagr for their China operations over the next five
years. Conversely, we lower Lotte from Outperform to Underperform and
retain our Outperform call on Shinsegae, as they continue to play catch-up.
Cosmetics cracking the China code
􀂉 We expect strong growth in premium cosmetics as wealth increases in China.
􀂉 Korean brands are well positioned to succeed in the mid- and high-end segments.
􀂉 Product quality is key in selecting cosmetics and Korean products suit Chinese skin.
Upgrade LG H&H and Amorepacific
􀂉 Amorepacific’s China business is thriving due to mid-market brands’ rising
popularity as the value alternatives to Japanese names.
􀂉 We expect the firm to launch Chinese-ingredient/ginseng-enriched prestige brand
Sulwhasoo in 2010, which will boost the image and profile of Korean cosmetics.
􀂉 We have turned more positive on Amorepacific’s domestic and China businesses,
and raise our target price from 630,000 won to 830,000 won, implying 6% upside.
􀂉 LG H&H’s China business is set to deliver a 40% Cagr over 2009-14, but from a low
base. Our 300,000 won target (previously 212,000 won) suggests 29% upside.
China’s potential can’t be ignored
􀂉 Due to superior GDP and private-consumption growth, retail sales in China have
beaten those in Korea over the past decade.
􀂉 Sales at China’s hypermarkets overtook Korea in 2005. The skincare market is twice as
large as Korea’s, oral care five times, noodles four times, confectionary six times.
􀂉 Korean consumer companies have taken a gradual approach to the China market,
with limited adaptation of their business moChasing China
Our recent 10-day China trip reveals a large opportunity for Korea’s
consumer firms, especially cosmetics brands, as the market looks for new,
high-quality products. We upgrade LG Household & Healthcare from
Outperform to BUY and Amorepacific from Underperform to Outperform. We
project a 30-40% profit Cagr for their China operations over the next five
years. Conversely, we lower Lotte from Outperform to Underperform and
retain our Outperform call on Shinsegae, as they continue to play catch-up.
Cosmetics cracking the China code
􀂉 We expect strong growth in premium cosmetics as wealth increases in China.
􀂉 Korean brands are well positioned to succeed in the mid- and high-end segments.
􀂉 Product quality is key in selecting cosmetics and Korean products suit Chinese skin.
Upgrade LG H&H and Amorepacific
􀂉 Amorepacific’s China business is thriving due to mid-market brands’ rising
popularity as the value alternatives to Japanese names.
􀂉 We expect the firm to launch Chinese-ingredient/ginseng-enriched prestige brand
Sulwhasoo in 2010, which will boost the image and profile of Korean cosmetics.
􀂉 We have turned more positive on Amorepacific’s domestic and China businesses,
and raise our target price from 630,000 won to 830,000 won, implying 6% upside.
􀂉 LG H&H’s China business is set to deliver a 40% Cagr over 2009-14, but from a low
base. Our 300,000 won target (previously 212,000 won) suggests 29% upside.
China’s potential can’t be ignored
􀂉 Due to superior GDP and private-consumption growth, retail sales in China have
beaten those in Korea over the past decade.
􀂉 Sales at China’s hypermarkets overtook Korea in 2005. The skincare market is twice as
large as Korea’s, oral care five times, noodles four times, confectionary six times.
􀂉 Korean consumer companies have taken a gradual approach to the China market,
with limited adaptation of their business models.
􀂉 Orion is the exception: it has built a Chinese brand with production in China. This
allows for wider margins than other Korean brands due to lower raw-material costs.
Shinsegae and Lotte - Distant China profits
􀂉 Shinsegae will expand its discount-store chain E-mart, adding 50 outlets in three to
four years.
􀂉 However, a lack of scale means its China business is likely to remain loss-making
until 2012. We continue to rate the stock an Outperform.
􀂉 Lotte Shopping needs scale and a clear strategy in China. We downgrade the stock
from Outperform to Underperform since domestic growth looks priced in.dels.
􀂉 Orion is the exception: it has built a Chinese brand with production in China. This
allows for wider margins than other Korean brands due to lower raw-material costs.
Shinsegae and Lotte - Distant China profits
􀂉 Shinsegae will expand its discount-store chain E-mart, adding 50 outlets in three to
four years.
􀂉 However, a lack of scale means its China business is likely to remain loss-making
until 2012. We continue to rate the stock an Outperform.
􀂉 Lotte Shopping needs scale and a clear strategy in China. We downgrade the stock
from Outperform to Underperform since domestic growth looks priced in.

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