2010年3月全球海运行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：53
        【目录或简介】：
Equity Summary: Shipping equities under our
coverage fell ~3% on average, with a few strong weekly
performances from STX Pan Ocean, SBLK and TNK.
Tanker Market: Mid East VLCC rates softened last
week to ~$43kpd on light activity though West Africa
VLCC’s held steady. With low crude inventory and new
refineries coming online in China, Far East crude
demand should remain strong, in our view. China now
imports more crude daily from the Middle East than the
US. Therefore, we remain cautious, as replacing
American demand with Asian demand is a negative for
the ton mile equation.
Dry Bulk Market: Iron ore pricing seems to be on
everyone’s mind and can be seen in Capesize rates’
slow decline last week (Exhibit 3). Capesize rates
(~$28kpd) dipped below Panamax rates for the second
straight week as high iron ore prices pressure earnings.
Iron ore prices continue to rise, with 62% Swap Curve
Front Month prices near all time highs. The grain
season remains strong - buoying Panamax earnings in
both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, but still not enough
to offset negative sentiment overflowing from the Cape
segment.
Container Market: In line with seasonal decline in
demand and with higher ship capacity as new services
are launched and upgraded, spot container shipping
rates continued its downward decline. Long-haul China
to Europe/Mediterranean and China to US routes
declined 2.4% and <1%, respectively week over week
(Exhibit 98).

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