摩根大通：美国航天军工行业研究报告2009年9月

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Table of Contents
Investment Thesis ................................................................... 3
Commercial Aerospace................................................................................................3
Defense........................................................................................................................3
Key Investment Points ............................................................ 4
Commercial Aerospace................................................................................................4
Defense........................................................................................................................4
Financial ......................................................................................................................7
JPM Aero/Def Balance of Power........................................... 11
Performance and Valuation .................................................. 12
Recent Performance...................................................................................................12
Historical Valuation...................................................................................................16
Commercial Aerospace......................................................... 17
Large Commercial Aircraft........................................................................................17
Air Traffic Trends and Demand ................................................................................19
Airline Profitability....................................................................................................23
Orders and Deliveries ................................................................................................24
Regional Jets..............................................................................................................28
Business Jets/General Aviation .................................................................................29
Defense................................................................................... 32
Historical and Projected Levels of Spending.............................................................32
Recent Trends in the Investment Accounts ...............................................................33
Outlay Trends ............................................................................................................35
Program Level Data...................................................................................................37
Defense Company Backlogs......................................................................................39
Company Financials.............................................................. 40
Alliant Techsystems (ATK).......................................................................................45
Boeing (BA) ..............................................................................................................46
Bombardier (BBD.SV.B) ..........................................................................................47
CACI International Inc. (CAI)...................................................................................48
Embraer (ERJ) ...........................................................................................................49
General Dynamics (GD)............................................................................................50
Goodrich (GR)...........................................................................................................51
Harris Corporation (HRS)..........................................................................................52
L-3 Communications (LLL) ......................................................................................53
Lockheed Martin (LMT) ...........................................................................................54
Northrop Grumman (NOC) .......................................................................................55
Precision Castparts (PCP)..........................................................................................56
Raytheon (RTN) ........................................................................................................57
Rockwell Collins (COL)............................................................................................58
SAIC (SAI)................................................................................................................59
Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) .........................................................................................60
United Technologies (UTX) ......................................................................................61
The authors acknowledge the
contribution of Amit Sharma, of
J.P. Morgan Services India
Private Ltd., Mumbai, to this
report.

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