摩根大通：欧洲电信行业研究报告2009年1月

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Telecom Services
Some leaks, some patches - still a good shelter
Telecoms Services
Hannes WittigAC
(44-20) 7325-8310
hannes.c.wittig@jpmorgan.com
Jonathan DannAC
(44-20) 7325-6853
jonathan.dann@jpmorgan.com
Jerry DellisAC
(44-20) 7325-5534
jeremy.a.dellis@jpmorgan.com
Maurice PatrickAC
(44-20) 7325-9025
maurice.patrick@jpmorgan.com
Akhil Dattani
(44-20) 7325-6337
akhil.dattani@jpmorgan.com
John-Paul Davids
(44-20) 7325-5119
jp.davids@jpmorgan.com
Daniel Morris
(44-20) 7325-9788
daniel.x.morris@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
For Specialist Sales advice, please
contact
Alex Latham
(44-20) 7325-9396
alex.w.latham@jpmorgan.com
See page 150 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
The European telecoms sector has strongly outperformed since September 2008,
hence it might be tempting to shift funds elsewhere. However, we believe that in
absolute terms the sector still offers decent upside, even taking into account
deteriorating macro and funding conditions, and we remain supportive of our
strategists’ overweight call.
• One year ago European incumbents traded at 7.8% equity free cash flow yield
against government bonds at 4.3%. Now telcos trade at 10.7% (11.2% ex
Telenor India) for 2009E vs. government bonds at 3.7%. The sector's one year
forward dividend yield has moved from 4.7% to 7.4%%. High grade telco
bonds now yield almost 2pp less than the equity, compared to 1pp more, one
year ago.
• In this research we argue that sector risks have not increased enough to fully
justify this differential, which means that the sector is not yet trading at a
historical relative peak and should still have absolute upside, which positions it
as a safe haven in a tough macro environment.
• We argue that, while there is late cycle macro risk, operators have flex (pricing,
costs, capex) to protect free cash flows. An extra 3% drop in volumes could be
compensated at the EBITDA level by a 5-10% price increase (e.g., BT’s line
rental hike), or alternatively at the cash flow level by a 3% cut in discretionary
costs together with a 10% capex cut.
• While there is we see more trading risk, we argue other risk factors score better
now than one year ago, for instance mobile regulation and M&A. In this note
examine European telco markets in detail and some evidence of increased
discipline, even if it’s still localized. Positively the current funding crisis may
trigger market consolidation events in 2009, at its best a not completely
unthinkable Hutchison exit from Italy or elsewhere.
• Stock ranking: Our top incumbent picks are Vodafone, followed by Deutsche
Telekom and KPN. We remain cautious on FT and Swisscom. We like the cable
and satellite sub-sector. With this note we have changed some forecasts and
target prices (FX or 2009 roll forward), as per Table 4 on page 9. Most
significantly we have raised our VOD price target to 205p (was 175p), while we
lowered our OTE target to

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 摩根大通 行业研究 电信行业 研究报告 行业 电信 欧洲 摩根大通

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