德意志银行：俄罗斯食品零售行业研究报告2009年9月

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Table of Contents
Investment summary ........................................................................ 3
Russian consumer sector has led market performance............................................................3
Russian food retailers have recovered to trade in-line with peers ............................................3
Estimate revisions.....................................................................................................................4
TP upgrades of 73% on average for Buy-rated Dixy, Magnit, X5..............................................4
What we learned in 1H09.................................................................. 5
Russian retail is a structural – not a consumption – story .........................................................5
Investments in gross margin drive traffic..................................................................................5
Who is the true price leader in Russian food retail?..................................................................6
Russian retailers are inefficient ...............................................................................................10
Effective costs of expansion are falling...................................................................................11
Deciphering LFL sales numbers..............................................................................................12
Working capital gains in 2H08 are not sustainable short term................................................17
Distribution is about execution – not warehouse space .........................................................18
Valuation update ............................................................................. 19
End of multiple expansion: stock growth to be earnings-driven .............................................19
Russian retailers still trade at a discount to historical multiples… ..........................................19
…though we feel historical growth premiums no longer justified; historical multiples no
longer relevant ........................................................................................................................20
Switching to forward-year target multiples .............................................................................21
Food retail comparable valuations................................................. 22
Magnit .............................................................................................. 24
Estimate revision.....................................................................................................................24
Investment thesis ...................................................................................................................24
X5 Retail Group................................................................................ 27
Estimate revision.....................................................................................................................27
Investment thesis ...................................................................................................................27
Dixy Group ....................................................................................... 29
Estimate revision: Is company guidance credible? .................................................................29
Investment thesis ...................................................................................................................30
Seventh Continent........................................................................... 32
Downgrade to Sell, TP set to zero ..........................................................................................32
Investment thesis ...................................................................................................................32
Appendix: DB Russian macro forecasts......................................... 34
Appendix: Moscow pricing survey................................................. 35
Appendix: Krasnodar pricing sample............................................. 36

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关键词：行业研究报告 德意志银行 行业研究 研究报告 零售行业 研究报告 行业 零售 德意志银行 俄罗斯