德意志银行：北欧银行业研究报告2009年1月

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Europe Sweden
Banks
26 January 2009
Nordic Banks
Credit quality negative;
government recap. positive
Jan Wolter
Research Analyst
(46) 8 463 5519
jan.wolter@db.com
More downgrades to EPS & TP, but recap. could be positive
Poor Q4 numbers, goodwill write downs and bearish outlooks could drive EPS
downgrades. We have cut sector EPS by 7% for 08E, 23% for 09E and 14% for
10E, and cut target prices on all the stocks. However, recapitalisation discussions
could drive shares; Danish banks have outperformed EU banks by 30% in the past
month, as government will take hybrid debt, rather than dilutive equity stake. We
believe outperformance will come from 1) banks with low rights issue risk and 2)
management’s success in containing credit risks.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Forecast change
Companies featured
Danske Bank (DANSKE.CO),DKK54.50 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS Adjusted (DKK)22.34 10.87 9.65
P/E Adjusted (x) 8.9 5.0 5.6
Nordea (NDA1V.HE),EUR3.80 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS Adjusted (EUR)1.14 0.98 0.60
P/E Adjusted (x) 10.0 3.9 6.3
SEB (SEBa.ST),SEK34.40 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS Adjusted (SEK)20.90 14.89 10.33
P/E Adjusted (x) – – –
Swedbank AB (SWEDa.ST),SEK29.40 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS Adjusted (SEK)22.99 13.85 8.83
P/E Adjusted (x) – – –
Sv. Handelsbanken (SHBa.ST),SEK92.25 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS Adjusted (SEK)17.60 16.54 13.43
P/E Adjusted (x) 11.8 5.6 6.9
DnB NOR (DNBNOR.OL),NOK19.40 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS Adjusted (NOK)9.89 8.08 6.44
P/E Adjusted (x) 8.4 2.4 3.0
Related recent research Date
Nordic banks' Shipping focus; Too late to stop
downturn
Jan Wolter 3 December 2008
Systemic risk may abate, poor macro continues
Jan Wolter 18 September 2008
Cyclical growth ending, credit cycle turning
Jan Wolter 20 May 2008
Nordic banks; Defensive, not immune
Jan Wolter 14 April 2008
This report changes price
targets, and/or estimates for
several companies under
coverage. For a detailed listing
of these changes, see Figure 2
on page 4.
Global Markets Research Company
SEB: Benefit most from government recap; reiterate Buy
SEB’s top-line is more volatile than peers, but apart from Baltics, asset quality is
more solid, given focus on Nordic blue chips and being underexposed to risky
SME’s and Shipping. A rights issue is discounted, and of Nordic banks we see
SEB benefit most from an expected government hybrid debt recapitalisation,
which has driven Danish banks’ 30% outperformance. vs EU banks, last 1 month.
SHB: Better in credit led downturn; reiterate Hold
We still rate SHB the best defensive pick in a credit-led downturn. We are
comfortable with asset quality; we see low risk of a dilutive rights issue, but
potential for a 2008 dividend. We expect rising lending spreads, and as NII is 60%
of SHB’s revenue, the bank will benefit more than peers.
DnB NOR: Credit loss spike Q4; reiterate Hold
DnB NOR’s valuation at 0.3x tangible book and management’s intention to avoid a
rights issue, are clear positives. However, we fear the 75bp credit loss level in Q4
could drive further EPS downgrades. Moreover, we believe currency effects and
rating migration have hit Q4 capital ratios negatively (disclosed in full 12 February),
which could lead to further rights issue speculation.
Danske Bank: Recap. and severe recession guidance; reiterate Hold
We expect a poor Q4 and cautious 2009 guidance, as Danske Bank Research
forecasts recessions in all the banks’ markets in 2009. This implies a “severe
recession scenario”, for which Danske Bank foresees 40bp–60bp credit losses.
There is risk of a DKK5.0bn write down related to Irish goodwill. A potential
positive is re-capitalisation, where government uses hybrid loans, rather than
taking dilutive equity stakes.
Swedbank: Ukraine a new worry; reiterate Hold
Swedbank could soon be a classic “turnaround” case; new capital is in place, a
new CEO takes the helm in March and key risk area (Baltics) look less risky due to
IMF support. But the Ukraine is the new worry in Q4, there is risk of a SEK4.0bn
goodwill write down, and risky Eastern Europe is 20% of lending.
Nordea: Lending growth negative, as credit losses surge; reiterate Sell
We like Nordea’s strong funding, with access to multiple central banks in Nordics
and Europe, but we fear Q4 will confirm rising credit losses and that Nordea’s
lending growth is still well above peers, which investors can see as negative.
SOTP-based valuation for Nordic banks
The SOTP methodology is based on sustainable RoE/growth and CoE. We use PE
models where applicable.

Table of Contents
Nordic banks 2009 outlook............................................................... 3
Key points ................................................................................................................................3
Nordic banks valuation..............................................................................................................4
Capital risk: Non-dilutive government recapitalisation a positive ..............................................6
Asset quality: not as bad as early 1990’s ..................................................................................7
Danske Bank..................................................................................... 15
Key points: Recapitalisation positive, but “severe recession scenario” base for 2009 guidance
...............................................................................................................................................15
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................17
DnB NOR .......................................................................................... 19
Key points: Credit loss spike Q4 .............................................................................................19
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................21
Handelsbanken ................................................................................ 23
Key point: Better in credit-led downturn .................................................................................23
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................24
Nordea.............................................................................................. 26
Key point: Lending growth negative as credit losses surge....................................................26
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................28
SEB.................................................................................................... 30
Key point: Benefit most from government recapitalisation.....................................................30
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................31
Swedbank ........................................................................................ 33
Key points: Ukraine a new worry ............................................................................................33
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................36

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