摩根大通：美国广告与营销行业研究报告2009年10月

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Table of Contents
U.S. Advertising Expenditures...............................................................................................7
Table 1. Advertising & Marketing Services — U.S. Outlook Summary, 2005-2010E .............................................................9
Table 2. Advertising & Marketing Services — U.S. Advertising Expenditure vs. Nominal GDP Growth, 1970-2010E .......10
Figure 1. Advertising & Marketing Services — U.S. Advertising Expenditure vs. Nominal GDP Growth, 1971-2010E......11
Table 3. Advertising & Marketing Services — Outlook for 2010E U.S. Advertising.............................................................12
Table 4. Change in U.S. Advertising Media Mix, 1970-2009E...............................................................................................12
Figure 2. Ad Spend by Medium, 1980-2009E .........................................................................................................................13
Table 5. Estimated Annual U.S. Advertising Expenditures, 1980-2010E ...............................................................................14
Table 5. Estimated Annual U.S. Advertising Expenditures, 1980-2010E (cont’d) .................................................................15
Table 5. Estimated Annual U.S. Advertising Expenditures, 1980-2010E (cont’d) .................................................................16
Table 6. U.S. Advertising Expenditure by Medium, 2000-2011E...........................................................................................17
Table 7. 2008-09 CPM Comparison .......................................................................................................................................18
Table 8. U.S. Ad Spending by Category.................................................................................................................................19
Global Advertising Expenditures ........................................................................................21
Table 9. Worldwide Advertising Growth, 1996-2010E...........................................................................................................23
Figure 3. Worldwide Ad Growth, 1997-2010E........................................................................................................................24
Table 10. Zenith’s World Advertising Expenditure by Region, 2006-2011E..........................................................................24
Table 11: J.P. Morgan European Media Estimates by Country (ad spending estimates in local currency).............................25
Table 12. Global Advertising Expenditures by Medium, 2006-2011E....................................................................................25
Table 13. Total Advertising Expenditure by Country, 2004-2011E ($ in millions) ...............................................................26
Table 14. Advertising Expenditure as a % of GDP by Country, 2001-2011E........................................................................27
Table 15. Advertising Expenditure per Capita by Country, 1997-2008 .................................................................................28
Table 16. Western European Advertising Expenditures by Medium, 1998-2011E ................................................................29
Table 17. Asia Pacific Advertising Expenditure by Medium, 1998-2011E.............................................................................29
Table 18. China Advertising Expenditure by Medium, 1998-2011E.......................................................................................29
Television Advertising Expenditures ..................................................................................31
Table 19. Television Advertising Expenditure by Region and Country, 2001-2011E.............................................................33
Table 20. DVR Household Penetration in the U.S., 2001-2014E............................................................................................34
Table 21: Profile of a DVR User ............................................................................................................................................34
Table 22: Top US DVR Markets ............................................................................................................................................35
Table 23. Historical Total U.S. Broadcast TV Ad Revenues, 1949-2008................................................................................36
Radio Advertising .................................................................................................................37
Table 24. Radio Ad Spending by Country and Region, 2001-2011E ......................................................................................39
Table 25. Historical U.S. Radio Advertising Revenues, 1960-2008........................................................................................40
Newspaper Advertising Expenditures ................................................................................41
Table 26. Historical Newspaper Advertising Revenues, 1950-2008 .......................................................................................43
Table 27. Historical Newspaper Classified Advertising Expenditures, 1975-2008.................................................................44
Table 28. Newspaper Advertising Expenditure by Country, 2001-2011E...............................................................................45
Figure 4. Newsprint Prices, 1Q88-3Q09E ...............................................................................................................................46
Figure 5. National Newspaper Ad Expenditures – Year-over-Year Change, 1Q91-2Q09 ......................................................47
Figure 6. National Newspaper Ad Expenditure Detail, 2008...................................................................................................47
Figure 7. Retail Ad Spending versus Retail Sales – Year-over-Year Change, 1Q91-2Q09 ....................................................48
Figure 8. Retail Ad Expenditure Detail, 2008..........................................................................................................................48
Figure 9. Classified Ad Expenditures – Year-over-Year Change, 1Q91–2Q09 ......................................................................49
Figure 10. Classified Ad Expenditures Detail, 2008................................................................................................................49
Magazine Advertising Expenditures ...................................................................................51
Table 29. Magazine Advertising Expenditures by Country, 2001-2011E ...............................................................................53
Table 30. Top Magazine Ad Categories, 2007-08 ...................................................................................................................54
Table 31. Subscriptions/Single-Copy Sales, 1997-2008..........................................................................................................55
Table 32. Cost of Magazines, 1999-2008 ...............................................................................................................................55
Table 33. Retail Sales by Channel, 1998 and 2008..................................................................................................................56
Table 34. Magazine Advertising Pages and Rate Card Revenue, 1999-2008..........................................................................56
Figure 11. Ratio of Advertising to Editorial Pages, 1997-2008...............................................................................................57
Internet Advertising Expenditures ......................................................................................59
Table 35. Internet Advertising Expenditure, 2001-2011E ($ in millions) ...............................................................................61
Table 36: US Online Ad Spending, 2000-2013E.....................................................................................................................62
Figure 12. Internet Ad Revenues by Quarter, 1997-2Q09 .......................................................................................................62
Table 37. Digital Revenue by Ad Holding Company, 2008 ....................................................................................................63
Table 38. Top 20 U.S. Digital Agencies .................................................................................................................................63
Table 39. Top 20 U.S. Search Agencies .................................................................................................................................64
Table 40. Top 10 U.S. Ad Networks, September 2008............................................................................................................64
Table 41. Top 25 Web Sites by Unique Visitor .......................................................................................................................65

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