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In this report we are publishing our half-yearly update on European banking sector
data. The report covers aggregated data by country for the quoted banks,
individual bank data on a standardised basis, and macro-economic data by major
country. The data are extracted from our Running the Numbers database, which
covers European banking sector data from 1989 to date.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Running The Numbers
Companies featured
Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX),CHF56.75 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS Adjusted (CHF)-6.54 7.22 7.47
P/E Adjusted (x) -4.4 7.9 7.6
P/B 1.0 1.7 1.5
Barclays (BARC.L),GBP361.45 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS Adjusted (GBP)24.53 18.46 39.54
P/E Adjusted (x) 6.3 19.6 9.1
P/B 0.4 1.0 0.9
BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA),EUR56.25 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS Adjusted (EUR)2.55 5.13 4.77
P/E Adjusted (x) 11.9 11.0 11.8
P/B 0.6 1.1 1.0
National Bank of Greece (NBGr.AT),EUR26.42 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS Adjusted (EUR)3.30 2.24 2.21
P/E Adjusted (x) 4.0 11.8 11.9
P/B 1.1 1.8 1.7
Banco Santander (SAN.MC),EUR11.40 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS Adjusted (EUR)1.29 1.05 1.07
P/E Adjusted (x) 5.2 10.9 10.6
P/B 1.0 1.6 1.5
Intesa SanPaolo (ISP.MI),EUR3.04 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS Adjusted (EUR)0.16 0.16 0.22
P/E Adjusted (x) 24.2 19.9 14.5
P/B 0.7 0.8 0.8
Global Markets Research Company
Cyclical recovery under way; bad debts have peaked
European bank earnings are, in our view, at the start of their cyclical recovery. We
now expect the bad debt cycle to have peaked in 2009 (with a bad debt charge of
171bp), which implies a slightly milder bad debt cycle than the early 1990s. By
2011 we forecast a 16% RoTE, inclusive of a 89bp sector-wide bad debt charge.
Given that we believe a normalised sector bad debt charge should stand at around
70bp, we think that normalised returns could reach 17% to 18%.
A weak real economy, and a strong financial economy?
Recent economic data has been mixed, reinforcing our view that the real economy
is recovering, but only slowly. In response, we believe that the authorities will
keep monetary policy accommodative for longer. This creates a sweet spot for
financial assets, as surplus liquidity and the hunt for yield in a low rate
environment drives a cycle of issuance and demand. This is good for investment
banks and capital markets plays, but represents a substitution effect away from
bank balance sheets. We estimate that the annual run-rate of substitution is
currently 6% (in Europe) and 9% (in the US) of on-balance-sheet bank lending.
Valuation: 1.4x price to tangible book in 2010E
At the sector level, we believe the early stages of the return to profitability are
priced in, with the sector trading on 1.4x price to tangible book value (2010E), i.e.
comfortably factoring in above-cost-of-capital returns. But a recovery in returns on
tangible equity to the 17% to 18% range is not captured by current valuations. We
still see room to be positive on the European banks. In particular, we like market
share winners and capital markets plays. Our top picks on the former theme are
NBG, Santander and Intesa. Our top picks on the latter theme are Credit Suisse,
Barclays and BNP Paribas. The key risk to our constructive outlook for the
European banking sector would be a sharp correction in risk appetite, especially if
caused by an early shift in policy to fight inflation and remove monetary stimulus.
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