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Electronic Component Observer: October
Peak coming soon
Conclusion — We downgrade our near-term stock price outlook to moderately
bearish from neutral. The order growth rate is close to peaking and shares do
not look undervalued, so we see share prices sliding. Hopes of upward plan
revisions have been priced in ahead of Q2 results and we note the possibility
that all the good news will soon be on the table. We see defensives as falling
even more under the spotlight.
July–September results preview — We forecast Big 12 OP of ¥61.6bn in July–
September, versus an operating loss of ¥12.6bn in April–June (our old forecast
was for ¥45.3bn), mainly as orders have been running ahead of our estimates.
Of the 12 component majors, we think seven are likely to revise up.
Our new forecasts — Our new aggregate forecasts for the 12 are for FY3/10 OP
of ¥177.7bn (up 9.0x YoY, previous forecast of ¥159.7bn), while for FY3/11 we
forecast OP of ¥383.0bn (up 116%, previous forecast of ¥383.0bn). For
FY3/12, we forecast OP of ¥504.2bn (up 32%, previous forecast of ¥499.8bn).
Key factors at work include 1) hikes in our assumptions for electronic
equipment demand, chiefly for PCs and HDDs, 2) hikes in our order outlook,
and 3) changes in our forex assumptions.
Stocks to watch — We downgrade Rohm to Hold from Buy to reflect the
negative profit impact of our revised forex assumptions. On the other hand, we
like the look of Nidec, where we expect WPR success and brisk HDD demand
to lead to further upward revisions when July–September earnings are
announced, as well as Hirose, due to positives such as robust monthly orders,
relative immunity to forex effects, and healthy financial assets.
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