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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本电子元器件行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：92
【目录或简介】：
Mix of very strong demand and plateauing order momentum: We expect
a mix of positives and negatives in the short term for component stocks. The
positives include strong demand and likely earnings rebounds in FY2010, and
the negatives include a peak in order momentum and a rise in inventory
turnover periods. With the likelihood of a shift from inventory reductions to
restocking and moves by some companies to increase capacity, the negatives
may become stronger after late April, when the companies come out with
FY2009 results and FY2010 forecasts.
• We expect earnings to continue recovering in FY2010: We estimate
aggregate operating profit for the 17 component suppliers we cover will
increase 839% YoY from ¥28.2 billion in FY2008 to ¥264.3 billion in FY2009
and then grow 88.1%, a high but slower pace, to ¥497.3 billion in FY2010.
We expect shipments in 2010 of PCs, cellphones, and other major electronic
products to grow by a fairly strong 15% YoY. We revise our earnings
forecasts for 16 of the companies we cover.
• Rating changes for Mitsumi Electric and Taiyo Yuden, price target
changes for 14 companies: We raise our rating on Mitsumi Electric from
Neutral to Overweight but lower our rating on Taiyo Yuden from Neutral to
Underweight. Mitsumi Electric is likely to incur an operating loss in 4Q, but
profits should improve in FY2010 thanks to components for new types of
portable gaming machines. We reflect in our estimates for Taiyo Yuden the
likelihood of an easing of supply-demand conditions for ceramic capacitors
from summer onward and a consequent decline in prices. Based on our revised
forecasts, we revise our price targets for 14 of the companies we cover.
• Kyocera’s profit growth likely to continue: We expect further profit
improvement for Kyocera’s solar cells, which should benefit from steady
growth in domestic demand, as well as communications equipment and other
main products. Fundamental changes in the company’s earnings structure in
the wake of the financial crisis have started to pay off.
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