德意志银行：俄罗斯化肥行业研究报告2009年10月

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Table of Contents
Investment case................................................................................. 3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................7
Sensitivity analysis ....................................................................................................................7
Fertilizer market .............................................................................. 12
Industry capacity expansion....................................................................................................12
Fertilizer prices........................................................................................................................13
Next: the 2010 China contract ................................................................................................15
Long-term potash price...........................................................................................................15
Industry consolidation? ...........................................................................................................16
Russia exposure......................................................................................................................17
Debt .......................................................................................................................................18
Shareholders structure............................................................................................................19
Uralkali (Sell, USD20 PT)................................................................. 20
Company profile......................................................................................................................20
Outlook ..................................................................................................................................20
Valuation ................................................................................................................................20
Investment risks......................................................................................................................20
Uralkali in charts.............................................................................. 22
Silvinit (Sell, USD500 PT)................................................................ 23
Company profile......................................................................................................................23
Outlook ..................................................................................................................................23
Valuation ................................................................................................................................23
Investment risks......................................................................................................................23
Silvinit in charts............................................................................... 25
Acron (Hold, USD30 PT) .................................................................. 26
Company profile......................................................................................................................26
Outlook ..................................................................................................................................26
Valuation ................................................................................................................................26
Investment risks......................................................................................................................26
Acron in charts................................................................................. 28
Potash market in charts .................................................................. 29

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