2009年11月俄罗斯金属与矿产行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月俄罗斯金属与矿产行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：41
        【目录或简介】：

Moving PTs to end-2010. We revise our sector DCF models, plugging in
new COE guidance, revised macro-economic assumptions and new
pricing forecasts. We make no changes in recommendations: we reiterate
OW on Evraz, MMK and Norilsk Nickel, providing 18-56% upside
potential, while Severstal stays UW with just 5% upside potential (COB
Nov 03, 2009). The rest of the stocks remain N.
• What’s changed? We lower the base COE to 12.0% (from 13.0%), which
together with lower cost of debt results in our WACC range decreasing to
11.2-12.4% (from 11.6-13.8%). We also use new pricing assumptions for
steel (+16% y/y, HRC, EXW), coking coal (+54% y/y, CCC, EXW) and
base metals (+8% y/y, Ni, LME). For TMK, Mechel and Raspadskaya we
also adjust their production volumes accordingly.
• Steel and coal – strong ruble benefits domestic players. New FX (2010
RUB/$29.0 vs RUB/$32.0) should benefit Evraz (OW) and MMK (OW)
due to their strong domestic exposure. MMK should also benefit from
improved upstream integration via the acquisition of Belon. In the coal
sector we see Raspadskaya (N) benefitting from domestic steel output
(+23% h/h, 3Q09, WSA) and improved prices (+85% q/q, 3Q09) but the
absence of an off-shore listing remains a restraining factor for the stock.
• Norilsk Nickel – raising TP on improved pricing. We incorporate new
set price forecasts, with 2010 Ni price up by 21% (+8% y/y, 2010) and
2010 Cu price up by 39% (+20%, 2010), lifting our end-2010 PT to $157/sh.
• TMK – raising TP, rating remains N. We revise our TMK model,
adjusting 2010 output down by 23% (+16% y/y) and pricing down by 26%
(+13% y/y, 2010). We believe benefits of exposure to the global E&P
capex are offset by the large debt. However, in the long term declining
interest rates should benefit highly leveraged TMK.
• Key drivers. Domestic market recovery in 2010 (+5.0% GDP growth,
JPMe) is the key driver for Russian steel and coal, in our view.
Strengthening demand for stainless steel should drive Norilsk Nickel stock
while TMK stock performance is linked to global oil & gas expenditure.

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