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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月俄罗斯黄金行业研究报告
【作者】：VTB capital
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：114
【目录或简介】：
We are initiating our coverage of the Russian gold sector. Following the strong
sell-off during the crisis, the sector is still underperforming the gold price
while its fundamentals are stronger and soon it will be supported by active
production growth across all companies.
While the gold price outlook for the foreseeable future is neutral, we see the
sector’s earnings growth coming from an active expansion in production. All
the companies which took advantage of record high gold prices in 2009
managed to reinvest into new capacities, thus setting up a solid base for
production growth as early as this year. We forecast Polyus Gold to increase at
a CAGR 15% over the next 5 years, and Polymetal and Petropavlovsk to post
CAGRs of 12% and 13%, respectively.
We rate Polyus Gold a Buy with 31% upside potential to our 12-month TP of
USD 35/GDR. The company has the biggest reserves and we now see it
entering a production growth period which will unlock its value. Large-scale
Blagodatnoye is already set to be started in mid-2010.
KazakhGold might become a wild card for Polyus. However, at the moment we
are cautious on the current state of its assets and the capex needed to return
it to effective production. We rate it a Hold, with 16% upside potential to our
12-month TP of 9.4/share.
Polymetal is our preferred stock in the universe as its project development
expertise will in our view lead to effective growth. The presence of silver in the
product mix will help to drive earnings as we see it outperforming the gold
price. We rate Polymetal a Buy, as our 12-month TP of USD 14/GDR implies
39% upside potential.
Petropavlovsk is another name which we see presenting a big upside
potential: it remains the most competitive on the cost side and the iron ore
exposure is growing. It is also the cheapest on a multiple basis. We rate it a
Buy with 44% upside potential to our 12-month TP of USD 29/share (GBP
19/share).
The major risks to gold pricing are macroeconomic indicators (local currency
and inflation mainly). Specific risks are mostly capex requirements and
execution as the companies are all high growth profile.
Table of contents ............................................................................... 2
Investment Case and Valuation ......................................................... 3
Investment Case ............................................................................. 3
Valuation and Risks ........................................................................ 6
Polyus Gold ..................................................................................... 11
Investment Case ........................................................................... 11
Valuation and Risks ...................................................................... 13
Growth Analysis ............................................................................ 14
Financials and forecasts ................................................................ 19
Sum of the parts ........................................................................... 20
Company and asset overview ........................................................ 30
Polymetal ........................................................................................ 35
Investment Case ........................................................................... 35
Valuation and Risks ...................................................................... 37
Growth Analysis ............................................................................ 38
Financials and forecasts ................................................................ 43
Sum of the parts ........................................................................... 44
Company and asset overview ........................................................ 56
Petropavlovsk ................................................................................. 63
Investment Case ........................................................................... 63
Valuation and Risks ...................................................................... 65
Growth analysis ............................................................................ 66
Financials and forecasts ................................................................ 70
Sum of the parts ........................................................................... 72
Company overview ........................................................................ 81
KazakhGold ..................................................................................... 86
Investment Case ........................................................................... 86
Valuation and Risks ...................................................................... 87
Growth Outlook ............................................................................. 88
Financials and forecasts ................................................................ 89
Company overview ........................................................................ 92
Commodity market overview ........................................................... 95
Market developments ................................................................... 95
Investment trends ......................................................................... 98
Gold supply-demand trends ........................................................ 100
Silver supply-demand trends ....................................................... 102
Gold Sector overview ..................................................................... 104
Silver Sector overview ................................................................... 108
Disclosures ................................................................................... 111
VTB Capital — Equity rating definitions ........................................ 111
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