2009年11月澳大利亚银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月澳大利亚银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：

more positive view on the outlook for the banking sector
over the last quarter, we feel investors may be expecting,
and already paying for, a return to the long economic
summer that existed in Australia before 2007/08.
However, we have residual concerns on credit quality
relative to increasingly optimistic consensus
expectations, we think revenue headwinds are emerging
and we feel the regulatory environment creates some
uncertainty. Our forecasts imply that the major banks will
achieve ROEs of ~17% on average across the cycle.
With this in mind, we think they are fully valued, trading
on a P/BV multiple of ~2.0x and a normalized one-year
forward equivalent P/E multiple of ~14.0x. Accordingly,
we retain our Cautious industry view following the FY09
reporting season.
Order of preference: Our order of preference is NAB
(EW), WBC (EW) and CBA (UW). We prefer NAB mainly
because it is the best value bank in our coverage and we
forecast a greater EPS and ROE rebound than the peer
group in FY11E. Refer to page 4 for details.
Key issues from reporting season: We consider key
issues from reporting season on page 2 and company
result highlights on page 3. Exhibit 1 on page 2 details
h-o-h trends for a range of key performance measures.
Morgan Stanley forecasts: Since the start of reporting
season, we have upgraded our cash EPS forecasts by
~6% in FY10E and downgraded our forecasts by ~1% in
FY11E on average for the four major banks. We now
forecast major bank cash EPS to be broadly flat in
FY10E before rebounding by an average of ~26% in
FY11E and ~20% in FY12E. Key assumptions for
FY10E include ~6% growth in average interest earning
assets, ~1bp of margin expansion, a ~21% fall in
markets and treasury income, a ~1% increase in the
cost to income ratio and a loan loss charge of 72bp of
loans. Refer to page 5 for more details.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 澳大利亚 银行业 研究报告 澳大利亚 银行业