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Contents .............................................................................................................................. 2
Overview and Investment Comment ........................................................................................ 3
RCR March Quarter - Featured Tin Company Summary .............................................................. 4
Explorer’s Development Cycle Chart ........................................................................................ 5
Comparative Charts ............................................................................................................... 6
Financial Data....................................................................................................................... 7
Company Statistics................................................................................................................ 7
Reserves, Resources and Historic Mineralisation ........................................................................ 8
Valuation and Performance Data ............................................................................................. 8
Exploration, Development and Production Companies
Consolidated Tin Mines Limited ..................................................................................... 9
Geodex Minerals Limited ............................................................................................ 11
Gippsland Limited...................................................................................................... 13
Kasbah Resources Limited .......................................................................................... 15
Malachite Resources NL.............................................................................................. 17
Metals X Limited........................................................................................................ 19
North Queensland Metals Limited ................................................................................ 21
Outback Metals Limited .............................................................................................. 23
Venture Minerals Limited............................................................................................ 25
YTC Resources Limited............................................................................................... 27
Tin: Price Fundamentals....................................................................................................... 29
Select Charts and Tin Sector Statistics ................................................................................... 35
Report Contributors ............................................................................................................. 37
Disclosure and Disclaimer..................................................................................................... 38
Tin Price Performance
The tin-specific fundamentals of supply and demand that existed prior
to mid 2008 have been overwhelmed by the global economic downturn.
Ongoing risks to the world economy make short-term demand and
production forecasts for tin very uncertain.
The LME tin price is currently US$11,425/t (US$5.18/lb) down 55.2%
from the May ’08 LME high of US$25,495/t (US$11.26/lb). There has
been some price support in the range US$10k/t-US$12.5k/t in 4Q08
and 1Q09. Falling exchange rates in commodity-based economies have
helped support local tin prices. The tin market is in backwardation, with
the LME 3 month forward price currently US$11,392/t. LME stocks are
at depleted levels of ~9kt.
RCR expects tin to trade at US$9,000/t - US$15,000/t through 2009,
with an average price of US$12,750/t, a 50% retrace from the May
2008 high of US$25,495/t. Our long-term price forecast is US$15,000/t.
These forecasts are contingent on a stable US$ and reflect the potential
effects of global economic stimulus packages, as well as the difficulty of
re-establishing tin supplies (mining) when demand increases.
The Tin Market
Global demand for tin has fallen rapidly, to an estimated 350kt in 2008,
from 363.1kt in 2007 (down 3.5%; source, ITRI), with much of the
decline occurring in 4Q08. Suppliers have responded quickly by cutting
production, with some smelters in China and Indonesia closing through
December 2008 and January 2009. Chinese production for December
was 8,853t Sn, a 27.6% year-on-year decline.
Total mine production in 2008 is estimated to be ~333kt tin, an
increase on 2007 (320kt, USGS estimates) although these figures await
further confirmation. The world’s largest producer and consumer of tin
remains China (2007 consumption 131.5kt tin, production 135kt tin),
which is or has recently been a net importer.
RCR estimates that in 2008 the marginal cost of tin production for many
‘swing’ producers was ~US$15,000/t and that December 2008 price
drops to below US$10,000/t threatened much of global supply.
However, the cost curve is expected to shift down in 2009, due to lower
labour and oil prices and notional input costs.
Tin Sector Equity Performance
Share prices of 20 tin companies (this report) have increased an
average 56% over 12-month lows but are 74% below 12-month highs.
However, some tin-industry investments are proceeding or have gone
ahead in recent months, e.g: construction of the PT Timah 10kt/yr tin
chemicals plant (US$22m); commissioning of the US$148m Pirquitas
silver/tin/zinc operation in Argentina (TSX:SSO); ramping up of the
10kt/yr Sn Renison Project open cut and underground mines in
Tasmania (ASX:MLX); and Minsur’s US$347m purchase of the
Paranapanema group’s Taboca tin division.
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