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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月澳大利亚金属与矿产行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：56
【目录或简介】：
Positive outlook: We have revised earnings and price
targets on commodity price changes. China continues to
be the primary driver of demand growth in metals and
bulk commodities, and we think upside could materialize
through a continued US recovery. Our favoured metal
remains copper and we are positive on the outlook for
metals demand in 2010. Even in our least preferred
metals, Aluminium and Nickel, there have been positive
adjustments. Our Commodities analyst, Peter
Richardson, has revised his forecasts, as summarized in
this report and presented in detail in our publication,
Morgan Stanley Global Metals Playbook – 1Q 2010,
January 13, 2010.
US recovery could be positive for China: A continued
recovery in the US in 2010 that leads to employment
growth and ultimately consumption growth could be a
positive for Chinese net exports and metals demand in
our view. Our Chinese economist has forecast net
export growth for the Chinese economy at zero in 2010.
Our US economist is forecasting an end to the US
employment recession. We think this is important as the
US is likely to lead other major OECD economies in
GDP growth, that should be positive for metals and bulk
commodities in our view.
Overweight equities: These are Alumina Limited,
PanAust, Equinox, Western Areas, Newcrest, Lihir,
G-Resources, Macarthur Coal, Centennial Coal.
Diversified Miners: Based on our mid-cycle earnings
estimates, BHPB is trading on a P/E of 12.7x and RIO
8.8x, compared to their long-run average of 15.0x to
15.5x. Summary models are in this report.
Underweight equities: Fortescue Metals, Minara,
Riversdale (previously EW) due to valuation.
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