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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：170
【目录或简介】：
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The China government’s stimulus package has triggered the biggest investment
boom since 1993. This is causing unexpected ripple effects, including a credit
boom, a consumption boom and asset price inflation. The investment boom should
boost near-term growth and pave the way for long-term sustainable growth, but it
raises challenges for policymakers in maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Anchor themes
The investment boom kicked off this year and is likely to last into 2010-11F, driving
strong demand for raw materials and investment goods. We see FAI growth
reaching 40% y-y in 1H10F, possibly creating shortages in upstream sectors.
The investment boom will likely prove to be a milestone in China’s economic
development, paving the way for another decade of high growth fuelled by
domestic demand.
Not just an investment boom
􀁣 The investment boom should last long
The investment stimulus is much larger than the government originally planned and is
likely to last longer than most expect. We look for fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth
to remain strong in 2010F, reaching 40% y-y in 1H10F.
􀁤 Ripple effect one: a credit boom
With many projects being started this year, we think the authorities will be forced to
keep monetary policy loose in 2010-11F. Our estimates show the value of bank loans
outstanding almost doubling in three years.
􀁥 Ripple effect two: a consumption boom
The anticipated credit boom should boost household incomes as bank loans trickle
down into individuals’ pockets, increasing spending power. This, in our view, spells a
consumption boom.
􀁦 Ripple effect three: asset price inflation
Rapidly growing household wealth should create strong demand for asset reallocation,
putting significant upward pressure on asset prices.
􀁧 Beyond the investment boom
The investment boom should pave the way for long-term sustainable growth, but it
increases the chance of economic instability in the future. The potential damage can
be controlled if appropriate regulation is in place.
􀁨 What this means for the market and investors
On a top-down basis, our overall view on China equities heading into 2010 is bullish,
as we look for strong economic growth with positive structural change. We may see
differing growth trajectories in specific regions and sectors of the economy; thus our
sector analysts have put together a selection of quality BUYs on a bottom-up basis.
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