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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：PPT
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
Shift from liquidity-fueled rally to earnings-driven markets. The unprecedented surge in credit
growth last year had the effect of fueling a dramatic market rally for domestic stocks in 2009, with all
sectors benefiting from abundant liquidity. As Chinese policymakers move to curb excess liquidity in
the New Year, the deceleration in money supply growth will likely dampen earnings momentum for
companies in sectors sensitive to the changing monetary cycle.
􀂄 Some sectors are more resilient to liquidity tightening. The tightening policies introduced in early
2010 are negative for sectors leveraged to FAI growth, such as basic materials. The property sector has
temporarily fallen out of favor due to policy uncertainty, while the overhang of potentially huge capitalraising
plans by Chinese banks has momentarily driven investors to the sidelines. The outlook remains
bright for the consumer, healthcare and internet sectors, which should benefit from strong secular
growth and the Chinese policy tilt toward promoting private consumption.
􀂄 Strong fundamental demand for commodities, but imports are moderating. With monetary
conditions likely to remain relatively relaxed (even while being guided back to normal levels), the near
term demand for downstream commodities remains healthy. Improving exports and the seasonal pick
up in manufacturing and construction activity will also support the demand outlook for commodities.
However, elevated Chinese inventories lead us to expect a return to more normal monthly commodity
import levels. Going forward, the pace of new lending to commodity-intensive sectors will have a strong
influence on China’s raw materials intake.
􀂄 Exports to contribute positively to growth. After last year’s severe export slump, net exports
should make a modest positive contribution to Chinese GDP growth in 2010, after reducing growth by
3.9 percentage points in 2009. Signs of the export recovery are broadening and can be found in rising
container shipping rates, reported labor shortages in coastal manufacturing hubs and in renewed
political pressure for RMB appreciation.
􀂄 Capital market reforms on the horizon. The introduction of stock index futures, margin trading and
short selling this year will allow investors to deploy more flexible and sophisticated investment
strategies, resulting in higher A-share trading volumes. The anticipated launch of the Shanghai
International Board will also boost the momentum for onshore listings and offer domestic investors
greater diversity.
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