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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月韩国半导体行业研究报告
【作者】：韩国WORRI证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：30
【目录或简介】：
2010 memory market to surpass peak 2006
– The memory market (DRAM and NAND) should grow to $48.9bn in 2010,
surpassing the peak of 2006 ($47.8bn). Of note, the DRAM and NAND
markets are estimated at $30.1bn and $18.8bn, respectively.
– Although prices are likely to continue falling, the market should steadily expand
from $11.4bn in 1Q to $12.5bn in 4Q.
Investment points—limited supply growth, increased IT spending, and
growing demand for SSDs and smartphones
– We expect the limited DRAM and NAND capex in 2009 to drive the
semiconductor industry in 2010. 2009 DRAM and NAND capex is estimated at
$4.8bn and $3.0bn, respectively, putting DRAM capex at a 10-year low and
NAND capex at a 5-year low.
– Memory makers are expected to focus on volume growth via technology
migration rather than increased capex in 2010. However, DRAM and NAND
shipment growth should only reach 47.8% and 81.4%, respectively, due to the
financials at second-tier producers and setbacks in equipment supply.
– In terms of demand, we expect increased IT spending to drive demand growth
for DRAM makers, and solid-state drive (SSD) and smartphone shipment
growth should lead NAND demand growth.
Top pick: Samsung Electronics
– We recommend Samsung Electronics (SEC) as our top pick for the
semiconductor industry, as its DRAM market share should expand to 35.5% in
2010 (based on shipments; around 40% in terms of sales).
– We expect SEC to benefit from the strong NAND industry conditions given its
dominant SSD market share.
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