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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲半导体行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：62
【目录或简介】：
Demand recovering in many geographies, corporate demand returning:
We expect European semi companies to report 1Q10 at top end of guidance
(in some cases beyond) & guide to 2Q10 at top end of seasonal range.
Investor interest will be focused on whether companies are building
inventory, how much demand is “double” orders & whether strength in
demand is sustainable. PC, automotive, industrial end markets are strongest.
4Q10 inventory ex memory ex Intel was up only US$290m but was flat in
days; OEM inventory at 32 days is lowest in our database from '97.
• Raising expectations for ’10 semi capex growth to 55%: DRAM upgrades
& upcoming NAND spend makes us raise ests from 41%. Due to lack of
investment in DRAM for ~18 months due to the downturn & removal of wafer
capacity due to Qimonda bankruptcy, no Taiwan rescue & other retirements,
DRAM wafer outs in 2010 are ~12.5% below 2008 levels. Also as an effect of
downturn, DRAM companies are focusing on shrink as opposed to wafer
capacity addition. Thus with capacity addition in particular in NAND still
ahead, we believe that ASML still remains well positioned to benefit.
• LED pricing and end market remain buoyant; Tool orders should
remain strong: Based on supply chain indications, the LCD TV market is
extremely strong with a massive switch to LED backlit LCD TVs ahead of
the World Cup buying season. Supply chain indications are of continuing
tightness of LED supply and components such as light guides. LED prices
could even rise in the rush 2Q10 build ahead of pre World Cup TV buying.
In current tight market we continue to expect strong LED equipment orders
aiding equipment market leader Aixtron.
• Raising estimates on ARM, ASMI, Infineon, STMicro: Due to stronger
demand trends we raise our FY10 and FY11 estimates for ARM, ASMI,
Infineon and STMicro. Due to higher earnings estimates, we raise our PT for
ARM to 165p (from 145p), for ASMI to
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