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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月东南亚种植行业研究报告
【作者】：CIMB-GK证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT due to more bullish price outlook. We are raising
our regional plantation sector rating from Neutral to OVERWEIGHT following our
7-18% CPO price upgrades for 2010-11 and rollover of our target prices to end-
2010. We believe plantation stocks will outperform in the short term as CPO price
prospects look rosy for 1Q10. Singapore planters remain our top pick, followed by
the Indonesian and Malaysian planters. For exposure to the regional plantation
sector, we continue to recommend large-cap liquid planters. Our top picks in the
region are Wilmar, Sime Darby, Astra Agro, London Sumatra, Indofood Agri,
Sampoerna Agro and Golden Agri.
• Revising CPO price forecasts. We are pruning our 2009 CPO price forecast by
1% to US$700 per tonne after taking into account the weaker-than-expected CPO
price performance YTD. However, we are raising our CPO price (cif) forecasts by
7% to US$760 per tonne for 2010 and 18% to US$790 per tonne for 2011 in view
of the recovering economy, potential impact of the ongoing El Nino on crops and
a smaller crop from India due to the late monsoon. Our new local CPO prices are
RM2,240 per tonne for 2009, RM2,380 for 2010 and RM2,450 for 2011.
• CPO price to rally in medium term. We believe CPO price will trade in a tight
range of around RM2,100-2,300 per tonne in Nov due to seasonally higher palm
oil production by Indonesia and Malaysia. However, CPO price could rally towards
the end of this year until 1Q10 on the back of supply worries and a pick-up in
demand due to Chinese New Year (CNY) festivities, global economic recovery, a
smaller domestic oilseed crop from India and increased biofuel mandate. We
project CPO price to trade up to RM2,600 per tonne if the current El Nino causes
drought conditions in key planting areas. However, the price strength may not be
sustained into 2H10 if South America delivers a bumper soybean crop.
• Upgrading earnings forecasts and target prices. In view of our higher CPO
price forecasts and recent changes in our exchange rate assumptions, we are
raising our FY10-11 earnings forecasts for all the planters in our coverage by up
to 39%. This, along with some revision to our target P/Es and rollover of target
prices to end-2010 bumps up our target prices by up to 45%. We are raising Astra
Agro, London Sumatra and Bakrie Sumatra from Neutral to Outperform. Kuala
Lumpur Kepong and Genting Plantations are upgraded from Underperform to
Neutral.
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