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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月东南亚棕榈油行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
All eyes on CPO price developments
CPO price parity to soybean unsustainable; outlook capped
We recently flagged that the CPO price was at parity to soybean oil prices — a
scenario that historically has not been sustainable. We believe strong soybean
harvests and an improving weather outlook in Malaysia should alleviate risks of
supply shocks from Malaysian CPO output, capping any outperformance in CPO
prices. Interestingly, the three main CPO commentators have offered diverging
views with two of them turning more conservative on CPO prices. We maintain
our CPO price assumption of RM2,500/mT for 2010/11F, given downside risks
post soybean harvests and remain bearish on Malaysian planters and neutral on
Singapore and Indonesian planters given non-compelling valuations.
Earnings delivery to continue for midstream
Midstream processors delivered strong earnings in 4Q09, supporting our positive
view. In this light, we believe that these players will continue to deliver earnings
growth through strong volumes and margins, along with business model
transformations. Corporate actions should provide further re-rating catalysts, in
our view. We still prefer the midstream space with our BUY recommendations for
Noble, Wilmar and Olam (in order of preference).
On-the-ground checks show upside risk for soybean production
We were in Argentina last week and found expectations of strong soybean
production there providing further upside to current forecasts. The USDA had
tweaked soybean and soybean oil stock usage ratios upwards, in line with our
view of strong vegetable oil supplies in 2H10 putting pressure on prices.
Increased volumes should mitigate any margin pressure for the midstream.
Avoid Thai upstream names, which look fully valued
Within the Thai agri and food space, Capital Nomura Securities’ analyst Ploenjai
Jirajarus prefers to be positioned in downstream food names such as GFPT on
demand recovery. According to Capital Nomura Securities, Sri Trang Agro may
post further strong earnings in 1Q10F due to rubber price strength, given current
downside risks to rubber prices; the recommendation is under review. Capital
Nomura Securities’ REDUCE call on Khon Kaen Sugar remains, given that
current valuations have likely already priced in strength in sugar prices
Contents
Nomura ASEAN Soft Commodity Team 4
The CPO debate continues… 5
Commodity prices reverse downtrend; deliver mixed returns 5
Chinese downstream stocks and midstream lead overall returns 5
Consensus upgrades continue, led by Thai agri players 6
CPO price on parity with soybean oil — a ceiling for CPO 7
Are strong soybean harvests really priced in for CPO? 8
CPO inventories to be seasonally tighter in March-April; weather conditions
improving gradually 8
Malaysian planters lag regional peers in share performance 9
CPO commentators begin to diverge on CPO price outlooks 9
Current CPO strength not purely a question of supply and demand; crude oil
and US dollar still at play 10
Maintaining CPO price assumption of RM2,500/mT for 2010-11F 10
Continued pressure on refining margins from CPO price spike earlier
this month 11
USDA continues to revise soybean production forecasts; higher stock usage
ratios imply lower 2H oil and meal prices 11
China demand to grow in 2009/10F; imports account for most of its oil
requirements 12
China soybean crushing margins stage improvement, led by strong
soybean oil prices 12
Strong 4QCY09 results for processors; planters in line to below expectations 13
Midstream players’ balance sheet deterioration a concern;
working capital rising 13
Aggressive capex to bear fruit in FY10-11F for processors 14
Corporate actions are the flavour of the month; could result in
near-term catalysts 14
Watch out for the India story; will play out over the long term 14
Sugar price corrected m-m with possible further downside; rubber demand
growth and poor production supporting prices 15
Maintain preference for midstream processors over plantation operators;
avoiding upstream Thai names for now 15
Valuation snapshot 17
The ups and downs 22
Commodity prices reverse downtrend; deliver mixed returns 22
Chinese stocks and midstream lead overall returns 23
Performance of Thai agri stocks mixed; downstream and processors strong 25
Consensus upgrades continue, led by Thai agri players 27
Ears to the ground 29
Important events/news flow summary 29
Company news flow summary 32
Client marketing feedback 34
Highlights of our published research 35
Key earnings announcements 36
4Q CY09 earnings summary — in numbers 36
Strong volume growth for processors, results up y-y but off q-q 38
Concerns over balance sheet deterioration; negative operating cashflows 39
Commodity snippets 41
Palm oil 42
What you need to know for the month of March-April 42
Short-term CPO price model 46
Soybean, soy meal and soy oil 48
USDA increases its oilseed and soybean production outlook 48
Stock usage ratios for soybean meal and oil to increase in 2009/10F,
downward pressure on prices likely 48
Strong outlook on South American soybean harvest reconfirmed 50
Argentina’s soybean exports revised downwards due to stronger
domestic crush; China the leading importer 51
Crushing volumes to increase going forward; Argentina leads estimate
revision 51
China demand to grow in 2009/10F; imports account for most of its oil
requirements 53
China soybean crushing margins stage improvement, led by strong soybean oil
prices 54
Grains — rice, wheat and corn 56
Grain consumption to grow in 09/10F; grain output to decline 56
Damage from poor Indian monsoon less severe than anticipated 57
Thai rice output in 2010F may decline due to drought 57
EU to lead wheat production shortfall, while India to lead demand growth 58
US corn production to grow; Argentina to account for a larger share of exports 59
Rubber and sugar 60
Global natural rubber consumption to reach 14.0mn tonnes in 2019 60
Thai rubber exports expected to remain strong 60
Sugar prices correct sharply on expectations of higher output 60
Valuation methodologies 62
Risks to price target 63
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