2010年4月南非黄金行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月南非黄金行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：53
        【目录或简介】：

We’ve revised our gold price assumptions and taken account of recent
company disclosures to revise our forecasts, valuations, price targets,
investment arguments and ratings for the gold shares we cover. We’ve also
revised our cost inflation assumption for 2010 – 12 to 10.3% (12.4%) in
line with Eskom’s three-year average electricity tariff increase of 25.5%pa.
Our tempered near-term gold price forecast, offset by slightly lower SA cost
inflation assumptions, has lowered our earnings forecasts and DCF
valuations. Consequently we've revised lower our price targets and
highlight as a particular near-term risk the stronger rand/dollar
exchange rate. Our SA stock picks remain AngloGold Ashanti (OW), 6m
DCF-based PT R352/sh (R385/sh) and Gold Fields (OW), DCF-based
6m PT R116/sh (R121/sh). We downgrade DRD to N (OW), DCF-based
6m PT R4.20/sh (R5.30/sh) on the basis of our revised valuation following
the failed sale of 60% of the marginal Blyvoor underground mine.
• We remain mildly positive on gold even though the anticipated weakness in
USD in 1H 2010 has failed to materialise. Put simply, we didn’t see the
sharp rise in European sovereign risk that has weighed on EUR. Gold is on
track to test modestly higher in 2010 and 2011 (c$1,175/oz on average),
but core tailwinds (weak USD, concerns over developed world inflation)
have now become headwinds.
• The rand gold price is up 4% YTD at R269,000/kg but is flat QOQ to end-
March with the gold price (c$1,100/oz) and rand/dollar (cR7.50/$) averages
similar. The SA gold sector has lost 4% YTD and continues to trade at a
discount (c10%) to our revised DCF valuations on a spot basis. We see
gold at +$1,200/oz and the rand at +R7.80/$ in 2H 2010 (+12% to
cR300,000/kg). Based on our revised valuations we expect our sector picks,
ANG & GFI, to outperform the metal (+20% vs. +12%). We’re mindful that
the next 6m will be difficult for the SA gold miners in the face of a stronger
rand, higher costs and uncertainty with respect to evolving SA mining law.
So we're less confident that SA gold shares will outperform the metal easily.
• Key risks to our view include changes in the gold price, the R/$ exchange
rate and production, costs and capex outcomes different to our forecasts. SAspecific
risks include safety and power-related production losses, relatively
high wage and power tariff inflation as well as the potential adverse
economic impact of changing SA mining legislation.

Table of Contents
Investment summary – top stock picks remain ANG & GFI .4
Gold price outlook....................................................................7
Forecasts, valuations, price targets & sensitivity analysis 10
Changes to our gold price assumptions......................................................................10
Changes to our cost inflation assumptions.................................................................10
EPS forecasts summary..............................................................................................10
DCF- based valuations and price targets summary....................................................11
Sensitivity analysis ....................................................................................................12
AngloGold Ashanti Limited ...................................................13
Description.................................................................................................................13
Model changes ...........................................................................................................14
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................14
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................15
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................16
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................16
DRDGold Ltd...........................................................................18
Description.................................................................................................................18
Model changes ...........................................................................................................19
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................19
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................20
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................20
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................21
Gold Fields Ltd .......................................................................23
Description.................................................................................................................23
Model changes ...........................................................................................................24
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................24
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................25
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................26
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................26
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd................................................28

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 金行业 Assumptions 研究报告 行业 黄金 南非

Description.................................................................................................................28
Model changes ...........................................................................................................29
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................29
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................30
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................31
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................31
Randgold Resources Ltd .......................................................33
Description.................................................................................................................33
Model changes ...........................................................................................................34
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................34
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................35

Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................35
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................36
Tables
Table 1: Changes to key pricing assumptions (calendar years) ...................................4
Table 2: SA Gold share P/NPV at spot and at our assumptions...................................5
Table 3: Gold Supply and Demand Data (tons) ...........................................................9
Table 4: Changes to key pricing assumptions (calendar years) .................................10
Table 5: Summary of EPS forecast updates...............................................................11
Table 6: DCF valuations, ratings and price target derivation.....................................12
Table 7: FY2010E EPS and DCF valuation sensitivity analysis................................12
Figures
Figure 1: SA gold share spot-based P/NPVs and the rand gold price ..........................5
Figure 2: CY2009 Net cash expenditure (cash costs + capex + exploration divided by
oz sold).........................................................................................................................6
Figure 3: Investor demand for gold – ETF holdings....................................................7
Figure 4: Gold open Non-commercial positions on Comex.........................................8
Figure 5: The impact of Eskom's power tariff increases on SA gold mines’ costs ....10
Figure 6: AngloGold Ashanti December 2009 quarter cash cost curve.....................13
Figure 7: Breakdown of our AngloGold Ashanti valuation at our forecast prices.....16
Figure 8: DRDGold December 2009 quarter cash cost curve....................................18
Figure 9: Breakdown of our DRDGold valuation at our forecast prices (R/sh).........20
Figure 10: Gold Fields December 2009 quarter cash cost curve................................23
Figure 11: Breakdown of our Gold Fields valuation at our forecast prices (R/sh) ....26
Figure 12: Harmony December 2009 quarter cash cost curve ...................................28
Figure 13: Breakdown of our Harmony valuation at our forecast prices (R/sh) ........31
Figure 14: Randgold Resources December 2009 quarter cash cost curve .................33
Figure 15: Breakdown of our Randgold Resources valuation at our forecast prices
($/sh) ..........................................................................................................................35
Appendices
Appendix I: March 2010 Mining Summit statement.............38
Appendix II: Rand/dollar exchange rate and gold price
technical view.........................................................................41
Rand/dollar technical charts (Murray Morrison) .......................................................41
Gold technical charts (Murray Morrison) ..................................................................43

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