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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
ICBC and CCB are our top picks, based on capital
position: We expect this to be a key near-term
differentiator. We maintain our OW ratings on ICBC (PT
HK$7.11) and CCB (PT HK$8.02). Declines in Tier 1
ratios at CCB and ICBC have been less driven by
operations compared to peers. We view BoComm as
most vulnerable; its Tier 1 is potentially the lowest
among HK-listed peers and it has little capacity for
sub-debt. We rank BOC, CMB, and Citic as better than
BoComm either on Tier 1 or sub-debt capacity.
We continue to see strong ROE in relation to RWA
growth at CCB and ICBC: CCB and ICBC score
balanced trends in all key lines driving profitability,
resulting in ROA above peers. CCB and ICBC are also
ahead of some other banks in loan loss reserves.
Should the gap close or narrow, it would affect earnings
and hence Tier 1 capital more in favor of them.
2010 is likely to be another year of strong loan
growth: The big three still see Tier 1 above 9% even
though their dividend payout in relation to 2009 is ahead
of peers (50% dividend payout ratio vs. ~25% for peers) .
BoComm, Merchants and Pudong have run out of
sub-debt capacity, based on the recently reported 25%
cap on Tier 1.
Basel II is the next focus area relating to capital:
Most HK-listed Chinese banks (based on media reports),
will be on a pilot scheme for Basel II in 2010. We think it
is hard to gauge the impact now. We have witnessed
capital impact both ways in developed markets. On the
positive front, RWA could be lower, via a more detailed
classification in risk-weighting vs. a simple 100%. On the
negative front, eligible capital in CAR calculation could
be lower due to the change in the amount of collective
allowance to be included in capital.
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