中国银行业研究报告 - 2010.9.16.

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【名称及出版时间】： 中国银行业研究报告 - 2010.9.16. C
【来源】： DBS Group
【文件格式】： pdf nr  
【页数】： 46
【目录或简介】：
More concrete case for soft landing. August macro
data were encouraging. Two pillars of China’s economy,
retail sales and industrial production, came in better than
expected. Meanwhile, inflation remained manageable
and looks set to decline in magnitude in 4Q10. China
appears on track for a soft landing, and this bodes well
for banks’ asset quality and earnings outlook.   
Bigger banks have less provisioning risk. According
to mainland press reports, banks may be required to hold
provisions of at least 2.5% of total loans. This rumoured
requirement will not impact the Big 4 banks, but will add
provisioning pressure for smaller banks. We believe this
requirement is too crude and unfair, since it does not
consider NPL differences. Therefore, its implementation
chances should be low. Nonetheless, we believe larger
banks have better risk/return prospects amid this
uncertainty.
Turning slightly more optimistic. We maintain our
view that banking stocks will remain range bound in
2H10. Yet, given the encouraging August data and
upcoming rights issues from the large cap banks, we
believe banking stocks can trade towards the upper end
of their ranges. Our top picks are large caps CCB and
ICBC. We like CCB as it should be next in line to issue
rights in October. Meanwhile, ICBC is a good laggard
play, especially after the bank’s stellar 2Q showing.

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关键词：行业研究报告 中国银行业 中国银行 行业研究 研究报告 中国银行业 industrial 研究报告 concrete expected

Table of Contents
How are valuations of the H-share banks? 3
How were August money supply and interest rate figures? 4
How were the latest key macro economic figures? 6
How much were net new loans and what is the composition? 8
How is deposit growth and deposit mix? 10
How are property transactions and prices in China? 11
What is the progress of the sector’s capital raising? 13
How have each bank’s share price reacted to capital raising news? 15
What ROE and CAR levels can we expect post-capital raising? 16
What are the potential dilution impacts from upcoming capital raising? 16
What were noteworthy operating and earnings trends in 1H10 20
Which banks are more exposed to LGFV loans? 26
Which banks are more exposed to property related loans? 27
How are asset quality and provisions? 28
Potential impact of rumoured 2.5% provision requirement as percentage of total loans? 29
What are balance sheet and loan portfolio differences between banks? 30
Which banks are more sensitive to interest rate changes? 31
How have H-share banks performed recently on a relative basis? 32
How do the current P/B levels compare with past levels? 33
What price ranges are PB bands suggesting? 35
What is our order of preference for H-share banks? 36
How did banks perform in 2Q10? 37
Peer comparison tables 41

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