2010年2月亚洲光伏行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月亚洲光伏行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：57
        【目录或简介】：
Recent subsidy cuts should result in
market share gains for cost leaders
􀀗 Solar is now competitive for peak loads;
demand to grow as credit crunch eases
􀀗 OW(V) on TSL, STP for market share
gains; upgrading GCL to OW(V)
on valuation
Demand likely to grow, not collapse in 2H. The recent sell-off
following the news of German subsidy cuts suggests that the
market is pricing in a sharp decline in global demand in 2H10.
We believe solar sceptics are in for a surprise and that demand
could grow 10% h-o-h (to 3.9GW from 3.6GW). Germany
accounted for more than half of 2009 demand and appears to
have peaked, but demand is unlikely to fall off a cliff.
Moreover, Solar adoption in major markets such as the US,
China, Italy, India and Japan has barely begun. We expect these
markets to offset the dip in Germany.
Higher market share for cost leaders. We think German
demand for low-cost Chinese modules will increase, as we
estimate the IRR on solar projects using these modules will
remain a compelling 9-13%. By contrast, higher-cost
offerings from European and Japanese players are likely to
struggle. In addition, Chinese module makers are rapidly
bridging the long-held cost advantage of First Solar, the
current industry leader, and are likely to begin encroaching
into its core market of ground mount installations in 2H10.
This should accelerate their market share gains. Suntech
Power and Trina Solar are our key OW(V) calls on this theme.
Solar not expensive anymore; financing is the key. Direct
comparisons between the cost of electricity from conventional
sources and solar are faulty, in our view. Conventional
electricity costs vary with plant utilisation. They could be
half as much as solar for base-load plants (>80% utilisation)
but similar to it for peak-load plants (<20%). Thus, the
economics of solar make sense for peak summer loads.
Multiple utilities in the US have shown interest too, but they
prefer to buy solar power from a third party instead of taking
the capex risk. Solar vendors are willing to own solar farms
as a last resort, but have had trouble in arranging financing.
We expect entry of big solar investors like CIC to spur solar
investments and demand by end 2010. GCL is our key
OW(V) on this theme.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 光伏行业 Conventional 研究报告 亚洲 行业