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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国银行业研究报告
【作者】：元大京华
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：57
【目录或简介】：
Bank T/O Special Edition | Vol.1, no.9
Shifting Paradigm & Introducing Minsheng
In our special edition of Bank T/O today, we highlight the potential shift
in paradigm as the CBRC introduces new rules that could better manage
credit expansion than the usual PBOC tools of RRR and rate hikes, and
the resulting threat to the current vogue of NIM recovery plays. We also
recalibrate our sector calls as we update our estimates for the H-share
banks’ earnings, as well as the beta and risk-free rates (the downside of
rising rates!) to use as we roll over valuation to end 2010. Lastly, we
welcome Minsheng (1988 HK) to the H-share bank family with a short
pre-Hong Kong listing initiation report.
Threats:
► Overpay for NIM recovery: The play on smaller banks’ leverage to NIM
rebound seems increasingly overcrowded to us, and we caution
investors against overpaying as new regulatory rules may lessen the
urgency of RRR and benchmark rate hikes, which affect a broad
swathe of the economy when recovery is nascent. We believe rules like
direct counterparty transfers of loans may more effectively reduce the
multiplier effect of recycled deposits and leakages by targeting
regulatory pressure on the worst offenders without de-stabilizing the
entire banking system.
► Overplay big/small rotation: Given the unprecedented amount of new
loans this year, we believe the re-pricing speed differential between
big and small banks is narrowing as the latter grab a rising share of
MLT loans. We may thus be quibbling over a 1-quarter earnings lag in
the absence of a cycle consisting of successive rate hikes.
Opportunities:
► BUY CITIC/BOC/CCB/ICBC: These are banks that will do well even
without rate hikes as they can leverage up without your capital.
► SELL CMB/BCOM: Both face CAR headwinds and BCOM has the added
worry of a low LLR coverage.
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