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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国银行业研究报告
【作者】：建银国际
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
Stronger growth on recapitalization,
earnings dilution discounted
Sector Rating:
Overweight
(maintained)
All China banks under CCBIS’ coverage have reported in-line or
outperforming 1Q10 results, except China CITIC Bank (1398 HK). As a
whole, they recorded robust intermediary income growth and
better-than-expected credit quality in 1Q10, although no positive surprise
seen from margin expansion.
Reiterate Overweight for the sector. Earnings dilution from
expected recapitalization is already discounted in valuations
and China banks will see stronger growth outlook on the back
of strengthened capital base. Valued at a FY10F PER of 10.9x
and P/B of 1.9x, China banks are priced at discounted valuations
given their estimated average ROAE of 19.0% in FY10F, due to
expected earnings dilution in light of recapitalization in the coming
quarters. In our view, upcoming fund raisings will enhance China
banks’ growth potential and strengthen their capital base, offsetting
the already priced-in earnings dilution. Moreover, recent market
concerns on massive non-performing loans arising from local
government financial platforms and policy tightening over the
property market have resulted in further correction of the China
banking counters and offered better buying opportunities.
Prefer SOE banks to mid-cap banks. We prefer banks with a
combination of sustainable high equity return and attractive
valuation. Among the six banks covered, we prefer Bank of
Communications (3328 HK, Outperform, TP: HK$11.20), Bank of
China (3988 HK, Outperform, TP: HK$5.60), Industrial and
Commercial Bank of China (1398 HK, Outperform, TP: HK$7.40)
and Minsheng (1988 HK, Outperform, TP: HK$9.50). We are
cautious on China CITIC Bank (998 HK, Neutral, TP: HK$6.60) and
China Merchant Bank (3968 HK, Neutral, TP: HK$21.50).
Sector themes in 2Q10
Quantitative tightening by PBOC expected to come to an end.
Our macro team expects no further increase in reserve
requirements for SOE banks in 2010 following the recent hike of
50bps by the People’s Bank of China, and we believe that room for
public operations is also limited due to the pressure of rising yields.
With the removal of unfavorable quantitative tightening, we expect
China banks to see stable margin expansion for the remainder of
2010.
Recapitalization expected to boost valuations. From late May to
the end of 2010, we expect to see a new round of fund-raising
moves by China banks. Total amount to be raised in the A- and
H-share markets is estimated at RMB509b, or RMB306b for the
H-share market alone. We expect earnings upgrades to emerge
after recapitalization on stronger growth outlook and strengthened
capital bases.
Table of Contents
Stronger growth on recapitalization, earnings dilution discounted ...............................................................................1
Quantitative tightening expected to end .......................................................................................................................3
Recapitalization............................................................................................................................................................4
Recommendations.......................................................................................................................................................5
Bank of Communications (3328 HK) ............................................................................................................................7
Bank of China (3988 HK) ...........................................................................................................................................13
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (1398 HK) ....................................................................................................18
China Minsheng Banking (1988 HK) ..........................................................................................................................23
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK) ..............................................................................................................................28
China CITIC Bank (998 HK) ......................................................................................................................................33
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