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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：49
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment Case …………… 3
Our thesis: We are Overweight AXP and Equal-weight COF. Expect credit card ROAs to return to normalized 2.5%
levels, rather than 3–4% seen at peak of cycle.
AXP: Overweight …………… 5
We think that charge-offs peaked at AXP in 2Q09 and that its affluent, more resilient customer base and richer
rewards offerings will drive AXP’s share of US personal consumption from 4.2% in 3Q08 to 4.8% by 2012.
Rebounding corporate card spending as the economy improves is an additional driver of our assumptions for AXP’s
growing share of PCE.
COF: Equal-weight …………… 11
Our confidence band around COF’s normalized US Card ROA of 2.3% is wide given its skew towards subprime and
our expectation that it will be one of the most challenged by card legislation taking effect in 2010. We also believe
that credit improvements will lag the peer group, as card portfolio is skewed to subprime, 12% of loans are CRE, and
11% are residential mortgages.
Valuation Metrics & Price Targets …………… 16
AXP: $51 Price Target (based on P/E and P/B multiples, residual income, and sum-of-the-parts)
COF: $45 Price Target (based on P/E and P/B multiples, residual income, and sum-of-the-parts)
Credit Card Industry Overview
Credit Trends …………… 22
We expect peer group median card losses to peak at 10.1% in 4Q09 and ultimately decline to 9.2% by year-end
2010 and level off at a normalized 7.5% in 2012. Past cycles have shown us that jobless claims peak first, followed
by delinquencies, and then charge-offs.
Legislative Risk …………… 25
1. Credit Card Act of 2009 will result in compression of penalty revenues, shift to more annual fees, higher
NIMs, and lower card balances, leading to lower normalized ROAs vs. prior cycle.
2. Interchange Legislation, we believe, is more of a B2B issue than B2C, and therefore unlikely to have
Congress legislating price points between retailers and networks.
Capital – How Much Needed? …………… 32
Both AXP and COF are currently well capitalized and are able to handle reserve builds associated with bringing
securitized loans back on balance sheet in 1Q10.
Funding & Liquidity …………… 34
Card issuers have traditionally relied on ABS markets to fund roughly half of their managed card loans, but pricing of
securitized deals and uncertain status of Safe Harbor Treaty continue to weigh on new issuance. We expect card
issuers to focus on building out deposits going forward.
Financial Models & Key Metrics …………… 38
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