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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国银行业研究报告
【作者】：Fox-Pitt证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：37
【目录或简介】：
Analyst(s): Andrew Marquardt Andrew.Marquardt@fpk.com 212-857-6137
Macro Trends Monthly (Nov): Balance Sheets Still Shrinking
• This report looks at macro banking indicators, which provide a quantitative snapshot of trends in 4Q09.
• Early look at 4Q data indicates macro trends are quite similar to 3Q. Balance sheets continue to decline
with earning assets down 5% LQA and 3% YoY. Loan demand remains very weak (down 8% LQA and 7%
YoY) with contraction in C&l loans still in the double digits LQA. Sec portfolios continue to grow modestly, but it
appears banks are now mostly using remaining excess liquidity to pay down non-core funding (both borrowings
and Large CDs are down meaningfully LQ). Lower earning assets, improved funding and better loan pricing
should continue to support NIMs broadly, but spread income will remain mixed given the extent of declines in
earning assets. Fee indicators are also mixed as: 1) mortgage origination estimates were revised down; 2)
capital markets activity is mixed overall with better M&A activity offset by worse debt and equity issuance; 3)
equity markets are up modestly; 4) equity trading volumes are down; and 5) currency volatility is net about in
line with last qtr. AQ data indicates similar trends with corporate bankruptcies about on pace to meet 3Q levels,
initial jobless claims have flattened following declines last qtr and personal bankruptcies continue to decline at a
decelerating pace. Real estate data continues to show lower inventories, while median YoY asking price
declines have decelerated so far this month. Unrealized loss positions continue to show improvement.
• Implications (Commercial Banks)—slight negative bias to consensus due to mixed mortgage and capital
markets indicators, and pace of balance sheet decline possibly more than expected.
• Implications (Trust Banks)—neutral bias to consensus given modest improvement in equity markets, FX
volatility about the same as last qtr, mixed capital markets activity, and lower trading volumes. TCE ratios will
continue benefit from lower unrealized securities losses.
Specific takeaways below and additional detail in main body of note:
• Total loans are down 8% LQA and 7% YoY so far in 4Q. Commercial loans are down 9% LQA (vs -11% 3Q),
and are down 8% YoY (vs -4% 3Q). Consumer loans are down 8% LQA (vs -4% in 3Q) and are down 1% YoY
(vs +1% last qtr). See Figs 1-2.
• Core deposits are up 7% LQA (vs +3% in 3Q) and up 9% YoY (vs 13% in 3Q). Non-core deposits are down
20% (vs -5% in 3Q) and down 16% YoY (vs -6% in 3Q). See Fig 4.
• The yield curve remains steep on average so far in 4Q. See Figs 14-17.
• Credit spreads for both investment and non-investment grade bonds have narrowed. See Figs 18-20.
• Funding costs have improved as FHLB borrowings and deposit costs are down LQ on avg. The 3-month
LIBOR/Fed Funds remains slightly below historical levels. See Figs 21-23.
• Mortgage production forecasts have been revised down modestly, while applications and refi share have
been relatively steady although each saw a modest pickup in the last several weeks. The 30-year fixed
mortgage rate remains below 5.25% after peaking at 5.74% in early June. —See Figs 9-13.
• Market trends mixed with higher market values, mixed capital markets (better M&A, worse debt/equity
issuance). Trading volumes are lower. FX volatility is relatively unchanged so far in 4Q, and remains elevated
vs historical levels. See Fig 34-39.
• Real estate market trends better, as inventories continue to decline and YoY asking price declines have
decelerated. See Figs 40-44.
• Credit quality still mixed as the 24 corporate bankruptcies filings in 4Q are on pace to meet 51 filings from
last qtr, initial jobless claims relatively stable after decline last qtr (SA basis) and personal bankruptcies filings
continue to increase at a decelerating pace. See Figs 24-33.
• Unrealized securities losses continue to improve. See Figs 45-57.
• Consensus estimates, have been revised up for ’09, but down for ’10 with a wide range of results following 3Q
earnings. Consensus estimates for the Trust Banks were revised down for ’09 and ’10 relative to last month
following disappoint 3Q results.
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