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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国银行业研究报告
【作者】：STERNE AGEE证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：71
【目录或简介】：
Why are FDIC-assisted deals being valued so highly
by investors? Simply put, most of these deals represent
relatively low risk means for growth oriented
institutions to: (1) deepen their existing market share or
(2) extend their footprint at the expense of the FDIC.
§ Thus far, First Bancorp (FBNC-$13.29-Not Rated),
First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA-$155.50, Not
Rated), IBERIABANK Corporation (IBKC-$55.14-
Neutral), MB Financial (MBFI-$18.71-BUY), East
West Bancorp (EWBC-$14.80-Not Rated), First
Financial Bancorp (FFBC-$13.55-Not Rated), PacWest
Bancorp (PACW-$18.04-Buy), Prosperity Bancshares
(PRSP-$39.80-Neutral), Westamerica Bancorporation
(WABC-$53.69-Sell), and Stonegate Bank (SGBK-
$12.70-Not Rated) are small caps that have executed meaningful and/or multiple
transactions.
§ Over the remainder of the cycle, we continue to believe that numerous small cap and
quite a few mid cap institutions will benefit significantly from the re-regulation of the
industry. In general, we believe that institutions with NPA to asset ratios < 3% and
tangible common equity ratios > 7%—a universe of 128 publicly traded companies—are
well positioned to execute financially and strategically attractive acquisitions should such
opportunities develop (see Exhibit 12). We would note that 92 publicly traded banks and
thrifts boasted NPAs to assets < 3% and TCE ratios > 8%.
§ In Exhibit 13, we have highlighted a basket of 30 potential participants in the FDIC’s
ongoing recycling program. We would note that this list is heavily oriented toward small
cap stocks—the biggest beneficiaries of the FDIC’s recycling program—which we
believe will be very active over the next three years. We would encourage investors to
participate by assembling a diversified portfolio of potential beneficiaries to avoid excess
exposure to institutions that may experience unforeseen credit quality weakness.
§ The up-tick in the pace of failures to an annualized run-rate of 200 in 3Q09 versus 96
in 2Q09 and 84 in 1Q09 has stabilized at a rate of 196 in 4Q09 (through November 30,
2009); however, we believe the continued migration of institutions and their assets into
weaker credit quality foreshadows an increase in the failure rate in 2010.
§ The stack of high Texas ratio banks and thrifts is high. Excluding recent failures, 188
banks and thrifts with assets of $219 billion reflected a Texas ratio > 150%, while 182
institutions with assets of $160 billion maintained a Texas ratio of 100%-150%. The
FDIC’s list of problem institutions increased to 552 depositories with $346 billion of
assets compared to 252 with assets of $159 billion at the end of 2008; adjusted to reflect
the recognition of 95 failures with assets of $105 billion (through 3Q09), the in-migration
of problem institutions and assets represented 395 and $292 billion, respectively. On a
LQ basis, the in-migration totaled 186 banks and thrifts with $115 billion of assets.
§ The FDIC’s capacity to clean-up the slate of credit quality plagued depositories will
improve significantly on December 30, 2009, when depositories will pay three years of
premiums approximating $45 billion. As of September 28, 2009, the FDIC estimated that
its losses may total $100 billion from 2009-2013, which increased from $70 billion in
May 2009. Losses of ~$31 billion have been booked in 2009.
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