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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月欧洲林纸行业研究报告
【作者】：DnBNOR证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：62
【目录或简介】：
Table of contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................4
1. PRICE PRESSURE 4
2. EARNINGS DIVERSIFICATION 4
3. DEBT LEVELS ARE CRUCIAL TO WATCH 5
4. EV/EBITDA IS THE MOST HELPFUL VALUATION METRIC 5
2. MARKET OVERVIEW..........................................................................6
1. NEWSPRINT – NO END IN SIGHT FOR OVERSUPPLY SITUATION 7
2. MAGAZINE PAPER – TERRIBLE NOW BUT BETTER POTENTIAL 9
3. FINE PAPER (UNCOATED WOODFREE, A.K.A. OFFICE PAPER) 13
4. PACKAGING 14
3. COSTS: MAIN INPUT FACTORS..........................................................16
FIBRE 17
ENERGY: WILL TREND UP 19
CURRENCY: UNPREDICTABLE 22
DEPRECIATION AND WRITE-DOWNS: LOOK OUT! 22
4. VALUING PAPER SECTOR STOCKS.......................................................24
THE HISTORY HAS BEEN DREADFUL 24
P/E RATIOS: NOT HELPFUL WHEN PROFIT AFTER TAX < 0 25
EV/EBITDA: MORE HELPFUL 26
P/FCF: ALL OVER THE PLACE 27
P/B: USEFUL IN A "NORMAL" SCENARIO 27
P/B VS ROE PROVIDES EXPLANATIONS, BUT HAS LOW R2 29
LEVERAGE: DURATIONS AND INTEREST RATES ARE KEY 29
DIVERSIFICATION OF EARNINGS 32
CONSENSUS TRENDS: EBITDA 34
CONSENSUS TRENDS: DIVIDEND 36
VALUATION MULTIPLES 38
5. APPENDIX...................................................................................40
PAPER GRADES, TERMS AND EXPRESSIONS 40
FROM RAW MATERIAL TO PAPER – AN OVERVIEW 43
6. COMPANY COVERAGE......................................................................44
HOLMEN – HOLD: STABLE, HIGH-QUALITY EARNINGS, BUT NOT CHEAP 45
NORSKE SKOG – OVER-EXPOSED ON NP; EARNINGS PRESSURE 49
SCA – BUY: STABLE DIVIDEND OUTLOOK, WITH EARNINGS BENEFITING FROM STAPLE RETAIL EXPOSURE 52
STORA ENSO – SELL: SOLID EARNINGS, BUT HIGH DEBT RATIO AND HIGH PRICING 56
UPM – BUY: PLENTY CASH, LOW DEBT RATIO AND BROAD DIVERSIFICATION OF EARNINGS 59
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