2009年11月亚太证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月亚太证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：BNP百富勤
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：


Contents
1) Capital inflows to surge 30%..................................................................................................................................................... 3
Upside risk to foreign inflows forecast ................................................................................................................................ 3
Risks of a reversal in USD / risk appetite ............................................................................................................................ 4
2) Risk of capital controls.............................................................................................................................................................. 5
Lessons from Chile ............................................................................................................................................................ 5
Types of capital controls..................................................................................................................................................... 6
Capital control risk in Korea ............................................................................................................................................... 6
Market impact of capital controls........................................................................................................................................ 7
3) 2010: The year of M&A............................................................................................................................................................... 8
Country and sector trends .................................................................................................................................................. 8
Corporate beneficiaries ...................................................................................................................................................... 9
Slow export recovery to accelerate M&A........................................................................................................................... 10
4) Investment implications .......................................................................................................................................................... 11
Singapore Raised To Overweight .................................................................................................................................... 11
Korea lowered to neutral .................................................................................................................................................. 11
Sector allocations............................................................................................................................................................. 11
Technology leads performance in Phase 4 ....................................................................................................................... 12
Asia Asset Bubble Basket ................................................................................................................................................ 12
Companies short-listed using this screen......................................................................................................................... 13
5) Country section ........................................................................................................................................................................ 14
China: New loans to drop 25%......................................................................................................................................... 14
Hong Kong: Property market pause ................................................................................................................................. 16
Korea: Will the won-derful year repeat? ............................................................................................................................ 18
Taiwan: Sustainable earnings growth + liquidity boost...................................................................................................... 20
India: Consumption recovery; investment to follow ........................................................................................................... 22
Singapore: IR is next catalyst........................................................................................................................................... 24
Malaysia: CPO prices jump .............................................................................................................................................. 26
Indonesia: Domestic demand; rate hikes not a concern.................................................................................................... 28
Thailand: Overhangs cap re-rating potential ..................................................................................................................... 30
6) Appendix 1................................................................................................................................................................................ 32
Country asset allocation model ........................................................................................................................................ 32
Mean reversion ................................................................................................................................................................ 32
Sharpe ratio...................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Cost of equity ................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Calculating the market price of risk .................................................................................................................................. 33
7) Appendix 2................................................................................................................................................................................ 36
Asian key macroeconomic forecasts................................................................................................................................ 36

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关键词：投资策略报告 证券市场 投资策略 市场投资 策略报告 投资 证券 亚太

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