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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月泰国零售行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：36
【目录或简介】：
Investment Conclusion: Our conviction on CP All as
an essential long term core holding has increased after
yet another stronger than expected quarterly
performance. We upgrade our earnings by 7-9% for
CY09-12e and increase our price target to Bt26.7,
implying upside potential of 27%. CP All’s CVS business
beat our and Street expectations by delivering revenue
and operating profit growth of 16% and 44% yoy,
respectively, outperforming other retail players by a
margin. SSG continues to be robust, around the mid
single digits; competitive environment remains benign;
and the store expansion plan is on track with the addition
of 107 stores in Q3 and another 80-100 expected in Q4.
Growth momentum has continued QTD with the
customary festive stamp promotions being well received.
We believe CP All offers an excellent long- term high
quality investment opportunity. The Thai CVS market is
at least 10 years away from stable state, and we view
CP All as best placed to capitalize on this growth story. It
has a dominant market share, flawless execution record,
strong brand franchise, and efficient business model.
Big C remains a value pick: Big C is attractively valued
and is trading at a discount of 22% and 36% discount on
a P/E and EV/EBITDA basis respectively for CY10
compared to global hypermarkets. The stock is just 8%
above our bear case value, which we believe is too
pessimistic. We believe Q3 to be the trough in terms of
space productivity and performance and expect a
recovery in SSG by the end of this year. Also, in CY10,
we expect the company to open 3-4 stores as compared
to one in CY09. At 11x CY10e EPS, dividend yield of
4.3% and EPS growth of 13% projected over the next
two years, we believe Big C offers attractive value.
Retain EW rating on MINT: MINT had a weak Q3,
driven by a double-digit decline in ARR. We cut our EPS
estimates by 5-9% for CY09-11e. An improvement/
deterioration in ARR would be a key leading indicator to
watch out for. Another trigger could be a potential
strategic acquisition in the next 3-6 months.
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