2010年4月英国零售行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月英国零售行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：54
        【目录或简介】：
The UK electricals market has been a ‘graveyard’ for
a decade ... Of the 30 largest electrical retailers in the
UK in 1997, 18 have subsequently exited the market.
Despite this, the ROIC generated by the leading players
is lower than for any other subsector we cover.
… but we think it is going to get a lot worse. In this
report, we set out a detailed bottom-up analysis of the
UK electricals market. We show that even if all of the
UK’s remaining independents exited the market, it would
still not be possible for Best Buy, DSGi, Comet and John
Lewis to achieve their targets. We are convinced that
something is going to have to give.
We reiterate our Underweight ratings on both DSGi
and Kesa … We think it too early to be confident how
the market will shake out, but believe that it will be slow
and painful. We fear that UK industry profitability will fall
to zero by 2013/14, and cut our long-term (but not
near-term) forecasts for both DSGi and Kesa
accordingly. Our 2012/13 forecasts are now 45% and
20% below consensus, respectively.
… and much prefer CPW. While CPW (via its 50%
stake in Best Buy Europe) is also exposed to the market,
our forecasts already assume that its ‘Big Box’ initiative
meets with only limited success and makes no profit for
the foreseeable future. We would much rather have
exposure to the ‘new entrant’ than the ‘incumbents’ in
the forthcoming battle. It may not win, but we think it has
much less to lose.

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