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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国电力行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：129
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 7
Initiating coverage on 17 names ...............................................................................................7
Green theme now well entrenched for utilities.........................................................................8
Regulated capex outlook remains elevated despite cuts ........................................................11
Regulation has been relatively benign, but will it last?............................................................12
What turn? Gas and power fundamentals still challenging ....................................................13
Key sector risks.......................................................................................................................14
Recent stock performance.............................................................. 15
Utility valuation context ................................................................. 18
Sector relative P/E valuation no longer extended....................................................................18
Yield spreads attractive, but will change with higher rates .....................................................19
Power demand trends..................................................................... 26
Whither power demand growth? We are relatively cautious.................................................26
EIA data suggests demand curve pushed out several years...................................................27
Belt-tightening, real conservation or something else? ............................................................28
Behind the noise – maybe that’s efficiency we’re seeing?.....................................................30
Electric Vehicles............................................................................... 33
Electric Vehicles – Coming to a charging station near you......................................................33
Power and commodities................................................................. 35
Natural gas: Bloated market faces uncertain future ................................................................35
Power: Lower gas prices lead to margin compression...........................................................36
DB Utilities & Power commodity price deck...........................................................................38
Coal hangover must surely follow 2009 gas switching...........................................................39
Power region snapshots ................................................................. 43
Resetting of the supply/demand story ....................................................................................43
ERCOT: Tight gas-driven market; pace of wind build-out the key ..........................................44
New England: Mature, gas-driven market..............................................................................45
PJM: Diverse market with many industry players..................................................................46
MISO: Coal-heavy market with ample supply and weak prices .............................................47
WECC: Balanced market with significant hydro capacity.......................................................48
DB carbon framework ..................................................................... 49
Standardized carbon exposure framework and valuations......................................................49
Discussion of carbon framework methodology ......................................................................51
Regulated return trends.................................................................. 54
Utility rate cases and regulated return trends .........................................................................54
American Electric Power................................................................. 57
CMS Energy ..................................................................................... 61
Con Edison ....................................................................................... 65
Dominion Resources ....................................................................... 69
DTE Energy....................................................................................... 73
Duke Energy..................................................................................... 77
Edison International ........................................................................ 81
Entergy Corp. ................................................................................... 85
Exelon ............................................................................................... 89
FirstEnergy ....................................................................................... 93
FPL Group......................................................................................... 97
ITC Holdings................................................................................... 101
Northeast Utilities ......................................................................... 105
PG&E Corp ..................................................................................... 109
PSEG............................................................................................... 113
Southern Company ....................................................................... 117
Xcel Energy .................................................................................... 121
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