美国电力行业研究报告2009年6月

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Table of Contents
Rationale for Investing in Utilities ........................................................................................ 3
Risks to Investing in Utilities................................................................................................ 4
Construction Cycle still Going Strong .................................................................................. 5
Hitting the Tail End of Environmental Upgrades .......................................................... 5
Transmission Investment Critical to Support Renewable Energy ................................ 6
Aging Distribution Needs More Than a Face Lift ......................................................... 7
Huge Public Policy Support for Renewable Energy ..................................................... 7
Nuclear Renaissance at Hand ..................................................................................... 8
How Will Regulators Treat Carbon Near-Term and Long-Term? ................................. 9
Regulation Still Seems Supportive ............................................................................. 10
Credit Agencies Will Become a Subtle Driver ............................................................ 11
Generation Weakness Comes with Lag ............................................................................ 12
Forward Gas Curve Climbing but Poor Indicator of Future Generation Earnings ...... 12
Heat Rate ................................................................................................................... 16
Reserve Margins ........................................................................................................ 19
Valuation Analysis ............................................................................................................. 25
Fair P/E for Steady Regulated Utility.......................................................................... 25
Generation Valuation ................................................................................................. 25
Utility Relative P/E Attractive Again ........................................................................... 26
…Dividend Yield Makes Defensive Utilities Look Attractive Too ................................ 27
…Current Momentum Might Be Playing Against the Group ....................................... 29
How Do We Classify Utilities? ........................................................................................... 30
Oppenheimer & Co Electric Utility and Independent Power Coverage ............................. 31
Company Fact Sheets
American Electric Power (AEP) .......................................................................... 34
Consolidated Edison (ED) .................................................................................. 36
Duke Energy (DUK) ............................................................................................ 38
Exelon Corp. (EXC) ............................................................................................ 40
FPL Group (FPL) ................................................................................................ 42
PG&E Corp. (PCG) ............................................................................................. 44
Pinnacle West Holdings (PNW) .......................................................................... 46
Progress Energy (PGN) ...................................................................................... 48
Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) .............................................................. 50
SCANA Corp. (SCG) .......................................................................................... 52
Southern Co. (SO) .............................................................................................. 54
Unitil Corp. (UTL) ................................................................................................ 56
Xcel Energy (XEL) .............................................................................................. 58
Glossary ............................................................................................................................ 60

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