2009年12月香港地产行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月香港地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：66
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Recommendation summary ............................................................. 4
Key changes in recommendation and earnings ........................................................................4
The fight for land bank...................................................................... 5
Key points ................................................................................................................................5
Still highly reliant on development profits from Hong Kong......................................................5
Limited land supply = Limited growth for developers ..............................................................8
Four major sources of land bank replenishment .....................................................................10
Expect a gradual increase in supply through selected channels .............................................14
Farmland conversions/MTRC/URA projects to be the key theme...........................................16
Henderson Land and New World Dev to be the key beneficiaries .........................................18
Hong Kong residential –capped by the government.................... 19
Expect no upside on 2010 residential prices...........................................................................19
Fundamentals improving gradually .........................................................................................20
Affordability to peak at 45% in mid-2010................................................................................21
Buyers stay cautious in view of higher prices and policy risks................................................22
Luxury to outperform in spite of higher policy risks................................................................23
Still a lot of new projects to be launched in 2010 ...................................................................24
Conclusion: prices to stay flat in 2010; luxury to outperform..................................................26
Hong Kong office and retail – modest recovery expected........... 27
No changes in rental outlook ..................................................................................................27
The known and the unknown......................................................... 28
Stock recommendations under new operating environment ..................................................28
Top Buys: Henderson Land and New World Dev ...................................................................29
Top Sell: Sino Land .................................................................................................................30
NAV and earnings revision ............................................................. 31
NAV and earnings revisions based on our updated assumptions ...........................................31
Sensitivity analysis ..................................................................................................................33
Cheung Kong Hldgs......................................................................... 36
Henderson Land Dev. Co................................................................. 40
SHK Properties Ltd .......................................................................... 44
New World Dev................................................................................ 48
Sino Land Co.................................................................................... 52
Hang Lung Properties...................................................................... 56
Kerry Prop ........................................................................................ 60

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