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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月亚洲地产行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：42
【目录或简介】：
Different strokes for different folks
Not all government measures are negative
With increasing correlation among property markets within NJA in recent years, the
collective rise in property prices in 2009 has given rise to concerns about asset bubbles
and consequent government policy response, which creates an overhang for markets and
stock prices. However, we believe concerns about policy response, while relevant, do not
apply uniformly across the region. While authorities in China and Singapore have
demonstrated their will and wherewithal to tame property speculation, we believe policies
introduced in Hong Kong are ineffective and policies in Indonesia remain constructive.
Consequently using property clocks we provide CS NJA property analysts’ view of their
respective markets, currently and in six months. Within the region, we are most confident
about Hong Kong and India on a six-month basis where we expect property prices to
continue rising before peaking. Our analysts in Indonesia and Philippines are even more
confident of their markets, viewing their markets as undergoing early stage upturns.
Hong Kong and India fare best when ranked
Using five common key drivers of property markets, we quantitatively rank each property
market within the region of nine countries. Coincidentally, Hong Kong and India are the top
two markets, with China ranking third and Singapore propping up the region from the
bottom. Extending this quantitative measure to valuations, we map each market’s ranking
with their valuations in Figure 1 and arrive at the following conclusions:
■ While Hong Kong’s and India’s valuations are not cheap, they appear justified by their
market outlook and are inexpensive than markets such as Thailand and Taiwan.
■ While China is inexpensive than Singapore, these two markets share similar threats of
further government policy measures should property prices continue to rise which give
rise to a possible short-term share price overhang.
■ Of the smaller property markets, Indonesia and Malaysia stand out both on the outlook
and valuations.
Hong Kong and India as top picks for 1H10
In the short term, with drivers supportive of a further property price rise and valuations
which are reasonable relative to the region, Hong Kong and India are the two property
markets we like for 1H10. While we remain sanguine on China and Singapore’s prospects,
both are currently facing headwinds which we think will remain for the next three to six
months. Indonesia is a wild card, with its economy and property market likely in an
inflexion point, hence the possibility of a strong secular uptrend. That valuation versus
history is supportive gives rise to comfort although our analyst, Teddy Oetomo, believes
near-term valuations are not as compelling. While Malaysia appears to be the most
attractive in our ranking, we are circumspect about the property market as supply and the
likely rate hike may temper the outlook.
Mirroring the market view, our top-ten picks in the region are Sun Hung Kai Properties,
Cheung Kong and Henderson Land in Hong Kong, Unitech and IBREL in India. In China,
we like COLI and E-House as we believe volume will take the centre stage once policy
concerns subside. As for Singapore, the medium- to high-end segment faces the least
headwinds which give rise to our preference for Allgreen. In Indonesia, we prefer Ciputra
while in Malaysia we like IJM Land as we believe it could potentially be the next SP Setia.
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