2010年欧洲汽车信贷行业展望

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年欧洲汽车信贷行业展望
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：52
        【目录或简介】：
After the exceptional gains of 2009,
investors are facing - at best - the
prospect of low returns in most sectors
we cover
􀀗 With visibility still low, we favour longdated
defensive bonds, CDS dispersion
trades and what we believe are
compelling credit stories
􀀗 Key Overweights: Fiat, Lafarge, Linde,
DSM, Anglo American, ThyssenKrupp;
Key Underweights: PSA, Saint-Gobain,
BASF, Bayer, Glencore
Positioning for non-consensual credit views
HSBC believes that developed market rates will stay “low
for longer” and that there is a high likelihood of hard landing
for the lower-rated parts of the credit world. Given these
non-consensual views, our recommended strategy for 2010
is to Overweight long-dated bonds from defensive names
(eg. Linde, DSM), favour dispersion trades in CDS (eg. short
BASF/ Bayer risk vs. less cyclical names) and what we
believe are undervalued credit stories (eg. Fiat, Lafarge,
ThyssenKrupp). Fundamentally, earnings and credit metrics
will be improving next year but we argue that for many
names metrics remain stretched for the existing ratings,
leaving little room for earnings/cash flow disappointment or
event risk (esp. M&A) at current valuations.
High conviction trades for 2010
Autos - Cash: Buy FIAT 2014s, 2015s; CDS: long FIAT
risk/short PEUGOT risk.
Building Mats – Cash: Switch out of SGOFP 2016s, 2017s
into LGFP 2017s; CDS: long LGFP risk/short SGOFP risk.
Chemicals – Cash: Buy LINGR 2016s (£), 2017s (

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关键词：positioning recommended Exceptional appointment Fundamental 行业 汽车 展望 信贷 欧洲

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